Jul 27, 2012
Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012 Core markets pick up the slack
26 July 2012 Contents
Investment volume Source of capital Investor type Property type Outlook Emerging Markets in focus Definitions Other DTZ Research reports Contacts 2 4 6 7 8 9 12 13 14
Concerns over the direction of the global economy continued to dampen investment activity in Asia Pacific in Q2 2012. Total commercial real estate transaction volumes grew by a marginal 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to reach USD27.4bn (Figure 1). Flat performance was driven by further slowdown in activity in China, where volumes fell by 22% q-o-q. Australia, Japan and Singapore all recorded some increase in volumes, partly offsetting the China decline. Domestic investors remain the dominant players, but the share of foreign investment continues to accelerate, representing over 15% of total investment in Q2 the highest proportion since the global financial crisis. Australia was a particular favourite for foreign capital, recording the highest cross border transaction volume in the region, at USD1.8bn. Thailand is also attracting foreign investment, namely from Japan. This trend is likely to continue as the Thai economy recovers. Q2 saw an increase in investment in the office and retail sectors. The growth in office investment was boosted by one mega deal the privatisation of the Charter Hall REIT in Australia. Sustained investment flow into retail reflects continued confidence in the region's consumption power. The average lot size declined further this quarter, to USD39m. A large proportion of deals (65%) involved small lot sizes (under USD20m). This reflects both investor caution and a lack of large assets for sale. Sentiment remains cautious amid continued economic uncertainty and concerns over the direction of the Chinese economy in particular. Whilst China is expected to see a modest increase in investment volumes in the second half of the year, this will not be enough to turn the market around. Reflecting this, we expect total Asia Pacific investment volumes in 2012 to fall 16% from last year to reach USD130bn.
Authors
Jade JY Tan Forecasting & Strategy Research +852 2250 8865 jade.jy.tan@dtz.com Kate Barrow Head of Asia Pacific Forecasting +852 2250 8864 kate.barrow@dtz.com
Contacts
Chua Chor Hoon Head of Asia Pacific Research chorhoon.chua@dtz.com David Ji Head of Greater China Research david.yx.ji@dtz.com Nigel Almond Head of Strategy, Research nigel.almond@dtz.com Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research hans.vrensen@dtz.com
Figure 1
Asia Pacific total investment volumes
USD bn 200 150 100 50
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Q1
Source: DTZ Research
Q2
Q3
Q4
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Investment volume
China slowdown dampens regional volumes Total commercial real estate transaction volumes were flat in Q2, growing by a marginal 0.3% q-o-q to reach USD27.4bn. Flat performance was driven by further slowdown in investment transactions in China, dropping by 22% q-o-q to USD9.8bn (Figure 2). Land deals in China typically account for a large portion of regional investment activity, so this weak performance weighed on the total. To put this in context, at its peak (Q3 2011), China accounted for two thirds of regional volume; in Q2, it amounted to just one third. Volumes pick up in Australia, Japan and Singapore Excluding land deals, total regional commercial building transactions showed strong quarterly increase of 15% to reach USD17.7bn (Figure 3). This is higher than the five-year average of USD13.9bn and was largely driven by strong performance in Australia, Japan and Singapore. Unsurprisingly, Japan recorded the biggest annual increase in total volumes compared to Q2 of last year when it was at its lowest ebb (Map 1). On a quarterly basis, however, volumes rose by a modest 8%, led by the listing of Activia Property Investment (18 properties covering retail and office) which accounted for 59% of the total. Although confidence is gaining, the Japanese market remains relatively quiet and the level of activity is exacerbated by a lack of investible stock. Australia (USD4.8bn) saw a surge in activity in Q2, with volumes up 80% q-o-q. Australia remains the destination of choice for foreign investors in pursuit of comparatively high yields. This was reflected in a 25% increase in the number of deals. Investment activity in Singapore also rebounded by 35% q-o-q to USD3.0bn. Malaysia and Taiwan posted the strongest growth in Q2. The increase in Malaysia follows from a weak Q1 and was largely accounted for by one single office deal (Menara Tun Razak 2 for USD164m by Malaysian investor, Sovereign Place). In Taiwan, local insurance companies snapped up USD588m worth of assets, more than half of total transaction volumes. Investors target small lot sizes Smaller lot sizes (under USD20m) accounted for 65% of the total number of deals in Q2. As a result, the average lot size declined further to USD39m (Figure 4).The reduction in average lot size reflects two things: market uncertainty (investors shying away from large deals) and a lack of prime assets for sale.
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Figure 2
Asia Pacific total investment volume
USD bn 60 40 20 0
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
China Singapore
Source: DTZ Research
Australia Japan
Hong Kong Other
Figure 3
Investment excluding land deals
USD bn 20 15 10 5 0
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
China South East Asia Other
Source: DTZ Research
Japan Australia Hong Kong India Buildings as a % of total volume (RHS)
Figure 4
Total investment activity by lot size
100% 80%
USD m
Q2 2012
80
60
40
60% 40%
20% 0%
20
0
Source: DTZ Research
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Under 20m 100-500m 1bn+ 20-100m 500-1,000m Overall average deal size
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Map 1
Investment volume Q2 2011 vs Q2 2012
China
Japan
India Taiwan Thailand Hong Kong
Malaysia
Singapore
Total Investment (USD billion) Australia 8,000 Q2 2011 Q2 2012
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Source of capital
Inter-regional investors grow market share Domestic investors remained the dominant force in Q2 but cross border activity continued to accelerate, both proportionately and in absolute terms, accounting for 15% (USD4.2bn) of total volumes the highest proportion since the global financial crisis (Figure 5). Diversification is a prevalent theme The increase in cross border activity reflects investors' need to diversify in times of risk. Foreign investment into Australia resurged in Q2, with cross-border deals amounting to over 37% of total investment volume, up from 24% in Q1. This was led by the privatisation of the Charter Hall Office REIT (USD1.2bn) through a joint venture between the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, GIC, and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board of Canada. Asian entities continued to dominate, and there was also a strong return from international investors, including Blackstone, MGPA, Pramerica and LaSalle (Figure 6 & Map 2). US-based private equity firm, Blackstone, is showing strong appetite for the Asia Pacific region. As well as a small deal in Australia (USD41m), Blackstone made its first foray into both Singapore and Japan, buying the StarHub Green business park in Singapore for USD166m and Green Cube logistics facilities in Japan for USD62m. Also in Singapore, Prudential Asia Fund purchased the Compass Point shopping centre in a joint venture with Frasers Centrepoint Limited for USD411m. Whilst prime yields remain worryingly low in Hong Kong, deterring many foreign players, mainland Chinese investors remain confident of capital gain. This was evidenced by a large en-bloc office transaction this quarter, by the Agricultural Bank of China for USD629m. In contrast to last quarter, there were no domestic deals in India in Q2. Total investment comprised two foreign transactions worth USD220m. Japanese investors buying land in Thailand Cross border land investment was fairly quiet in Q2, with only USD105m invested, all of it in Thailand. Japanese investors remain particularly active, acquiring vacant land plots in industrial areas in the Eastern Seaboard, which was unaffected by last year's flooding (Figure 7).
Figure 5
Total investment activity by source of capital
USD bn 50 40 30 20 10 0
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Purchaser nationality
20% 15%
10%
5% 0%
Domestic Inter-regional
Source: DTZ Research
Intra-regional Cross border % over total
Figure 6
Cross border investment excluding land deals, Q2 2012
USD m
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
International UK
Switzerland
Canada US
Singapore
China Destination of capital
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 7
Cross border land investment by investor nationality, Q2 2012
Kuwait 16%
Japan 84%
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Map 2
Domestic and foreign investment, Q2 2012
XX% Domestic Investment
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Investor type
Developers reign in buying activity Private property companies remained the dominant purchasers in Q2, although their share has reduced from 38% in Q4 2011 to 21% in Q2, accounting for USD5.8bn of the total (Figure 8). This is in line with the recent slowdown we have seen in developers acquiring land plots in China. This was also reflected in a decline in the purchasing share of quoted property companies, who were once again net sellers this quarter (Figure 9). Volumes from this investor group were supported mainly by Singaporean quoted property companies, including the Fragrance Group. At the same time, some Singaporean funds are looking outside their home market in search of higher returns. In India, high commercial property yields are attracting funds seeking long term return. Local developers, on the other hand, are choosing to liquidate commercial assets to invest in lucrative residential developments. Cash-rich investors good to go in tight lending environment Corporates once again emerged as the biggest net buyers in Q2, responsible for USD3.1bn worth of net purchases (Figure 9), although their purchasing volume was not as strong as in Q1. Activity was led by a few large owner-occupier deals, including the purchase of Hong Kong's 50 Connaught Road by a Chinese bank (USD629m), and the Chinese online wholesale trading giant Alibaba's purchase of an office in Shanghai for USD474m. Institutional investors, led by life insurance companies, have emerged as key players in both Taiwan and China. At a time when lending to the property sector is tight, these companies have ample funding and accounted for several large deals this quarter. The largest deal was the purchase of an office site in Hangzhou for USD365m by Ping'an life insurance. Ping'an is actively seeking quality assets elsewhere in China. Dynamic REIT activity Quoted property vehicles were net purchasers in Q2, mainly driven by J-REITs which accounted for 85% (USD4bn) of activity from this segment. At the same time, REITs are also divesting more in order to reduce their overall gearing, for example GPT in Australia. We are seeing a similar trend in the listed sector in Europe.
Figure 8
Total investment activity by purchaser type
Q4 2009
Q3 2011
Q3 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Private Property Company Quoted Property Vehicle Quoted Property Company Private Investor Other/Unknown
Source: DTZ Research
Corporate Private Property Vehicle Institution Public Sector/Government
Figure 9
Total investment activity by purchaser/seller, Q2 2012
USD bn 6 4 2
0
-2 -4 -6
Purchase
Source: DTZ Research
Sell
Net position
Q2 2012
6
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Property type
Mixed-use remains most active sector The mixed-use sector was once again the most transacted asset class in Asia Pacific in Q2, accounting for USD9.2bn of total transactions (Figure 10 & Map 3). Mixed-use investment in China has slowed as the land market has weakened, falling 10% q-o-q in Q2. Excluding China, mixed-use investment in the region was more active, predominantly driven by the asset swap of two mixed-use buildings in Tokyo by Mori Hills REIT and its sponsor, Mori Building Co., for a total of USD576m. But office and retail investment increases Following closely behind mixed-use, offices were the second most favoured asset class in Q2, accounting for USD8.1bn of total investment (up 11% q-o-q). Investment in the sector received a significant boost from the privatisation of the Charter Hall REIT. Investment in retail also increased, by 17% q-o-q, to reach USD6.3bn. Australia, Japan and Singapore all saw retail transactions double in Q2.
Map 3
By contrast, Q2 witnessed a decline in industrial transaction volumes, by 29% q-o-q to USD2.5bn. The exception to this trend is Taiwan where life insurance companies are chasing income-producing industrial assets in good locations. These assets are mainly let to high-tech companies as back office space. Several of these transactions have achieved record high unit prices this quarter, including the sale of the Changhong Triumph Building for USD239m.
Figure 10
Total investment activity by sector
USD bn
30
20 10 0
Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Asia Pacif ic
Office Retail Other/Unknown
Source: DTZ Research
Asia Pacif ic (excl China)
Mixed-use Industrial
Investment activity by sector, Q2 2012
China $9.8
South Korea $0.5 Japan $5.3
India $0.2 Thailand $0.1
Taiwan $1.2 Hong Kong $2.1 Singapore $3.1
Malaysia $0.2
10
3
Total investment (USD billion)
0.5 Australia $4.8
Office Retail Industrial Mixed Use Other/Unknown
Source: DTZ Research
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Outlook
Deals are out there but are taking longer to conclude Commercial real estate transactions in Asia Pacific in H1 2012 were 37% below the level recorded during the same period last year. Whilst China has led the decline, some markets have demonstrated strength, supported partly by changing market dynamics during times of uncertainty. As we have seen, investors are increasingly risk averse, and this was evidenced by a strong increase in foreign investment in Australia this quarter on the back of its "safe haven" status. We expect this trend to continue, underpinned by the relatively high yields on offer together with strong property market fundamentals (declining vacancy and rising rents). The outlook for commercial real estate investment in Japan is also positive, with J-REITs in particular, reigniting the market. However, the market lacks available stock for sale and this will hinder any sharp increase in volumes in the second half of the year. The market appears to have reached the bottom of the cycle and we expect investment activity to increase next year as more investors, both domestic and foreign, are drawn to the market and owners become more willing to sell as prices recover. After a quiet few quarters, we foresee a return of investment to China in the second half of 2012, encouraged by the recent rate cuts. However, given that curbs on the property sector remain in place, we expect only a modest increase in volumes. Meanwhile, investment in Singapore and Malaysia is expected to receive a boost from the anticipated listing of some new REITs. Although fears over the direction of the global economy and political uncertainties in Malaysia are likely to affect sentiment. With some mismatch between vendor and purchaser price expectations (purchasers are looking for assets to which they can add value, whilst vendors are looking to get returns on the value-add they have already undertaken), deals are generally taking longer to execute. In this context, we forecast some increase in investment volumes in the second half but not enough to produce a turnaround. As such, we have lowered our forecast for total Asia Pacific investment volumes in 2012 to USD130bn, 16% down on the 2011 level (Figure 11).
Figure 11
Current & forecast Asia Pacific investment volumes
USD bn 160
120
80 40 0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Actual
Source: DTZ Research
Forecast
2012
8
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Emerging Markets in focus
This quarter we provide detailed analysis of the region's emerging investment markets, Malaysia, Thailand and India. Next quarter, look out for our in focus analysis of China's investment market. Malaysian retail is one to watch As some investors withdraw from higher risk investment markets and return to core, those with strong appetite for growth are looking at the opportunities on offer in some of Asia's emerging markets. Historically, political instability has been one of the main barriers to entry in the region's emerging markets. Malaysia's relatively stable political and regulatory environment sets it apart from many of its peers. The government, challenged by a revived opposition, has recently launched a comprehensive economic transformation plan to propel Malaysia's economy into a high income economy by 2020 under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). Concurrently, the government has a vision to make Kuala Lumpur one of the world's top 20 most liveable cities. One of the areas for development is effective infrastructure and this is good news for real estate investment. Due to increasing accessibility and good information and communication technology, offices in Kuala Lumpur's suburban areas are attracting growing investor interest. This quarter saw the conclusion of a notable deal (Tower 8, Horizon Phase 2, USD30m) in Bangsar South, which achieved a high unit price for its non-central location. However, oversupply is expected to put downward pressure on office rents in Kuala Lumpur going forward and this outlook may deter investors. Retail investment, on the other hand, has gained significant share in the past few years on the back of strong market fundamentals (Figures 12). While prime retail capital values are only around one third of those in Singapore, prime retail units in Kuala Lumpur yield much higher income return, at circa 6.5% per annum (Figure 13). Kuala Lumpur retail is expected to continue to outperform other sectors given continued rural urban migration, a young population, strong tourist arrivals and rising disposable income. Reflecting this, we are forecasting average annual total returns of 12% between 2012 and 2016. But investors should be wary of potential fallout from the forthcoming election, as well as the introduction of GST.
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Figure 12
Investment volume by sector
USD bn
Malaysia
3
2 1
Thailand
India
Office
Retail Industrial Mixed-use
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Other/ Unknown
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 13
Prime yields, change 2007- Q2 2012
12% 10% 8% 6%
4%
2% 0%
Prime yields as at Q2 2012
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 14
Total investment volume, Q2 2011 to Q1 2012
USD bn
2.5 2.0
1.5
Purchaser nationality
Domestic
Singapore
Japan
1.0 0.5
0.0
Thailand
International
Malaysia
Thailand
India
Kuwait
Destination of capital
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
REITs add to Thailand's attractiveness Business and investment sentiment remain buoyant in Thailand, supported by the recovering domestic economy. This is drawing a mixture of domestic and foreign investors to the market (Figure 14). Apart from strong economic growth, urbanisation and favourable demographics provide good long term growth prospects. In Q1, the country recorded its largest ever property fund IPO Tesco Lotus Retail Growth Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund (USD0.6bn), demonstrating Tesco's confidence in the Thai retail market. Meanwhile, the recent introduction of REITs is expected to help stimulate the property sector, encouraging higher transparency and liquidity whilst providing more flexibility than existing property fund structures. This will help boost investor confidence in Thailand as an investment destination, as it reflects the growing maturity of the market. Nevertheless, risks exist in the form of political instability and rising inflation. India where challenges equal opportunities Stubbornly high financing and construction costs are dampening investor interest in India. Banks are lowering exposure to real estate and developers are consequently turning to non-traditional sources of funding, such as Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFCs). Delays in project deliveries are not uncommon. Corruption, political instability, restrictions on foreign investment and offshore debt are also a cause for concern for investors. Because of this, the Indian investment market is surprisingly quiet for a market of its size, recording only USD220m of transactions in Q2. At the same time, there are several factors that make India an attractive destination for foreign capital. The Indian economy closely follows that of China, both in terms of GDP growth and consumer spending growth. However, whilst China moves up the value chain, with cheap labour no longer a competitive advantage, India is home to an abundant labour force, a young population and a growing middle class with strong spending power. Real estate investment in India is largely centred on the retail and IT SEZ sectors. Regulatory liberalisation of the single brand retail industry to allow 100% foreign investment was big news last year. The decision to allow 51% Foreign Direct Investments in multi-brand retail has been put on hold by the government, but once allowed, will provide a tremendous boost to the retail sector, particularly in Tier II and Tier III markets.
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Another important factor driving investment in India are relatively high yields (Figure 13), which make real estate an attractive inflation-hedged investment vehicle compared to other asset classes. In fact, the Indian markets were among the best performing markets in terms of total returns in 2011 (Table 1 and 2), and this growth is expected to continue. However, potential oversupply is a concern. Investors should also take a long-term view in terms of exit strategy as the market lacks liquidity.
Table 1
Prime office growth rates (%) and directional outlook, emerging markets
Main markets Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Bengaluru Chennai Delhi Hyderabad Kolkata Mumbai Pune
Source: DTZ Research
Rental growth Capital growth 2011 4.69 0 13.3 7.1 16.6 0 11.8 0 4.2 2012 2011 4.7 0 14.0 9.5 18.5 1.6 8.3 0 5.9 2012
Total return 2011 11.2 7.6 22.9 19.0 28.1 11.4 16.8 8.8 14.9 2012
Table 2
Prime retail growth rates (%) and directional outlook, emerging markets
Main markets Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Bengaluru Chennai Delhi Hyderabad Kolkata Mumbai Pune
Source: DTZ Research
Rental growth 2011 8.2 0.2 20.0 12.0 0 5.6 2.0 0.3 6.7 2012
Capital growth 2011 12.2 0.2 21.4 13.2 0 6.7 2.6 0.3 6.7 2012
Total return 2011 19.2 9.6 30.4 22.7 11.0 16.2 10.7 9.3 15.3 2012
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Table 3
Significant deals across Asia Pacific, Q2 2012
Address 3 Centro Shopping Centres Town/city Multi-city Property type Purchaser Retail Office Stan Perro Agricultural Bank of China Vendor Centro Appollo Global Real Estate Management Price (USD m) 697 629
50 Connaught Road Central Hong Kong Privatisation of Charter Hall Office REIT (50%) Privatisation of Charter Hall Office REIT (50%) Tokyu Plaza Omotesando Harajuku (75%)
Multi-city
Office
GIC Public Sector Pension Investment Board
Charter Hall
600
Multi-city Shibuya, Tokyo
Office
Charter Hall
600
Retail
Activia Properties Inc.
Cross TMK (Tokyu Land related SPC) 562
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Definitions
This report presents data from the DTZ Research Investment Transactions Database (ITD). The ITD database is based on commercial property investment deals reported in the press (both property and general), company and fund reports, information supplied by external data providers and by DTZ local offices around the world. Transactions Transactions refer only to direct property. However, entity level transactions where real estate is a substantial proportion of assets are treated as purchases of direct property. Transactions cover Asia Pacific deals in excess of US$1 million, with the exception of China and Hong Kong where the threshold is in excess of US$10 million.
Quoted Property Vehicle - this category comprises listed real estate vehicles i.e. funds and tax efficient structured vehicles, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate. Corporate - this category comprises of companies whose main activities do not involve development or investment in real estate. Applicable to companies that are buying and selling property as owner occupiers or companies engaged in Externalisation - Disposal.
Property Type DTZ tracks commercial property transactions made in the office, retail, industrial and mixed use sectors. We do not record any land sales unless the land is purchased in development phase or is acquired specifically to construct a building or complex of buildings. Purchaser/Vendor Type Institution financial institutions/banks, pension funds and insurance companies. Public Sector/Government - all government bodies, whether national, regional or local/municipal bodies, government supported investment vehicles or government owned companies. Private Property Company - companies and developers, whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate but which do not have a stock exchange listing. Private Property Vehicle - non-listed investment vehicles whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate. Private Investor - private individuals Quoted Property Company - companies and developers, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate that is listed under Real Estate on a stock exchange.
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Other DTZ Research Reports
Other research reports can be downloaded from www.dtz.com/research. These include:
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Investment Market Update Asia Pacific Q2 2012
Contacts
Greg Marr Managing Director, Head of Direct Investments Australia +61 (0)2 8243 9925 greg.marr@dtz.com Rajeev Bairathi Co-Head of Investment Advisory, India +91 124 459 7500 rajeev.bairathi@dtz.com Tian Lam Ho CEO & Head of Investment Advisory, South East Asia +65 6393 2338 tianlam.ho@dtz.com Francis Li Head of Investment, North Asia +852 2992 4321 francis.cw.li@dtz.com
Anuj Nangpal Co-Head of Investment Advisory, India +91 22 4223 1600 anuj.nangpal@dtz.com
Disclaimer
This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ.
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