Dec 01, 2009
Sector
November 2009
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
GCC Real Estate Sector Quarterly
· · · ·
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Kuwait residential real estate segment to recover Qatar real estate sector to stabilize backed by economic growth Further corrections in the UAE real estate sector New mortgage law stimulating demand in Saudi Arabia
Kuwait residential real estate market is expected to pick up as it continues to witness a huge shortage in supply. The latest amendments regarding laws 8 & 9 and allowing construction in new areas will create increasing activity in the market. Moreover, extended credit for the segment is expected to pick up in the medium term. Qatar real estate market is expected to stabilize after a declining trend. It is seen as one of the most robust markets supported by the expected economic growth and diversification plans. Finally, demand will continue to be based on fundamentals rather than speculations thus reflecting real prices and rentals. Saudi is still awaiting the passing of the new mortgage law which was announced earlier this year. The law will create secure mortgage business for Saudi banks and will boost investors' confidence. The new law will also stimulate demand for the Kingdom's real estate property market. UAE real estate market continued to slide during 3Q 09, with the steepest decline witnessed in Dubai. The recent announcement of Dubai World's debt restructuring shook investors' confidence in the emirate's ability to repay its debts. Therefore, we expect further corrections in Dubai. Likewise, the real estate market in Abu Dhabi continued to correct during 3Q 09. Although, Abu Dhabi is in a better position than its neighbor Dubai, we do not expect the market to recover in the near term given the new supply entering the market.
November 2008 57,742 298,746 106,430 216,887 606,490 1,228,189 2,514,484 % change 18.3% -9.1% -1.7% -5.6% 0.5% -25.4% -13.5% On-hold projects November 2009 9,053 41,040 6,735 7,864 39,179 368,244 472,115
·
·
·
Value of Projects in the Gulf US$ mn November 2009 Bahrain 68,331 Kuwait 271,532 Oman 104,617 Qatar 204,800 Saudi Arabia 609,360 UAE 915,897 GCC total 2,174,537
Source: MEED Projects
Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research fhasan@global.com.kw Phone: +965-2295 1270 Abir G. Ahmed Senior Manager agouda@global.com.kw Phone: +965-22951272 Walid S. Mohamed Senior Financial Analyst wsamir@global.com.kw Phone: +965-22951277
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On the projects front, the GCC region as a whole witnessed a Y-0-Y decline of 13.5% in total value of ongoing and announced projects by the end of November 2009 as per MEED projects data. Not to mention the largest hit was seen in UAE reporting 25.4% of decline. Kuwaiti market followed with 9.1% of decline while Qatar retreated by 5.6%. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain real estate sectors increased by 0.5% and 18.3% respectively. Finally, the total value of on hold projects stood at US$472.1bn. UAE accounted for the largest share of on hold projects 78% followed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia at 8.7% and 8.3% respectively.
1
Sector
Bahrain Real Estate Sector
November 2009
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
New Law Suspended...
The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) introduced on Aug.1 2009 a 30% cap on the share of real estate financing that banks can hold in their gross financing portfolio and also capped banks' real estate investments at 40% of their capital base. However, the CBB withdrew the regulation in November.
The new law if introduced would have resulted in book value losses if banks were forced to reduce their holdings in the current market situation. Banks would have also been in a weak bargaining position as potential buyers were aware that banks need to sell due to the regulations. Also, this regulation would negatively affect the real estate financing as banks will reduce their home loans.
Performance
Average Monthly Office Rentals
12 10
Average Monthly Retail Rentals
35 30 25
BD/sqm
BD/sqm
8 6 4 2 0 Diplomatic Seef Area Area Central Manama Bahrain Al Moayyed Financial Tower Harbour
20 15 10 5 0 Average Retail Rate Seef Mall Bahrain City Center
Source: Bahrain Ministry of Industry and Commerce
Source: Bahrain Ministry of Industry and Commerce
The country's prime office space is located in downtown Manama with Al Seef district emerging as an extension to the CBD, and the Diplomatic area with major developments such as the Bahrain World Trade Center, and Bahrain Financial Harbor. During Q4 2008, additional space was added including West End Tower in Seef, Signal One Tower in Amwaj Island and Time Square Tower in Diplomatic Area with sales prices ranging from BD1,500 to BD1,800 per sqm. Monthly rents for prime office space ranged from BD8 to BD15 per sqm. Apartment Monthly Rental Ranges (in BD)
200 Juffair 1BR Central Manama 1BR Juffair 2BR Central Manama 2BR Seef 2BR 350 500
The retail market in Bahrain has been resilient during the financial crisis. Prime retail rental rates used to be BD16 per sqm on average. Despite the small size of the Bahraini population, demand for Bahrain's retail market is supported by the influx of Saudi population from the Saudi Causeway. The latest retail projects launched in 2009 was Bahrain City Center with rental rates ranging between BD30-35 per sqm.
650
800
950
Source: Bahrain Ministry of Industry and Commerce
2
Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Several residential towers were launched for sale in Q4 2008 including Raffles City, Difaaf, Mina Dar Al Salam, Venice Apartments at Reef Island, Aya Tower, Amwaj Waves and Delmar with average sales prices ranging from BD950 to BD1,800 per sqm. However, the financial crisis and the lack of funding led to a slowdown in residential sales. According to the head of Bahrain Real Estate Association, property prices in Bahrain had fallen by 10% to 15%. On the other hand, the rental market was not affected which led to an increase in rental yields which reached up to 11%.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
Residential ( Freehold)
Downward
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Residential (Rental) Office Space
Stable Downward
Retail
Stable
The foreigners freehold property laws drove the residential market in Bahrain with many projects such as Amwaj Islands, Abraj Al LuLu and Marina West sprouting across the kingdom causing an increase in the supply of freehold properties targeting the high end segment. The rental market on the other hand has been resilient as the lack of financing led to a shift in demand from the freehold market to the rental market. There was a shortage of prime office space in Bahrain, however, the financial crisis led to the contraction of many businesses, consequently demand eased. Additional space was expected in 2009-2010. However, many projects got delayed or cancelled such as Aya Tower in Hoora, and the Signal One Tower in Amwaj Island. The retail market in Bahrain is supported by the traffic from The Saudi Causeway. Another causeway is expected soon which will link Bahrain to Qatar.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Kuwait Real Estate Sector
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
KFH case against Law 8 & 9
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
The Cassation Court issued a verdict that allows KFH to finance private real estate residences. Thus KFH would be the first Sharia' compliant bank to be exempted from Law 8 & 9 regulations that prevent banks and companies from dealing in residential real estate whether by trading or mortgaging.
Conventional Banks preparing for talks with National Assembly and the Cabinet regarding Laws 8 & 9.
This is mainly after Sharia' compliant banks -lead by KFH- were granted a verdict to be exempted from such laws.
Kuwaiti Cabinet excluded 7 residential areas from its 2003 decision regarding new residential areas construction permits.
The 2003 decision prevented the issuance of any construction permits for new residential areas until all infrastructure projects and services are finalized. This decision was a major reason for delaying the execution of new residential projects thus profounding the residential real estate scarcity in Kuwait.
Real Estate Financing
Such decision is expected to have positive impact on the residential real estate market. Thus real estate sales are expected to see more activity in the next period. This might help the stagnant market over a longer term thus combined with expected economic pickup in 2010 residential real estate prices might pick up slightly up to 10% next year. According to conventional banks the current financial crisis have narrowed the available financing opportunities for banking sector and thus residential real estate financing and mortgaging is an important window for both Islamic and Conventional banks and it is important for both to stand on the same footage. Thus the latest Cabinet decision is expected to help solving residential real estate problem by increasing supply. The new cities of "Jaber Al Ahmed, Saad Al Abdallah, Sabah Al Ahmed, Al Maseelah, Al Saddeeq, Al Funaytees and Abu Fateera" were exempted from 2003 Cabinet's decision. Thus construction permits will be issued for these areas in the near future. Generally, such decision is seen as a positive step by the Cabinet to help real estate sector to revamp from its decline and the impacts of financial crisis. According to market players, such decision will help raising real estate prices which declined by 30% to 40% since the eruption of the financial crisis last year. Looking forward, we expect credit facilities extended to both sectors to pick up slightly after the new decisions allowing mortgaging for residential real estate by Sharia' compliant banks as well as allowing constructions in new areas.
On monthly basis, extended credit facilities for real estate sector continued its marginal monthly growth up to the end of September 2009 reporting a new record level of KD6.6bn, or a YTD growth of 10.1%. On the contrary extended credit facilities for construction sector reported marginal monthly declines this year retreating by 3.2% on a YTD basis reaching KD1.6bn. Extended facilities for both sectors accounted for 33% of total credit facilities by the end of September 2009.
Performance
The real estate sector continued its fading performance since last year. For the 8M09 period; sold units reported 39% decline reaching 2,831 units down from 4,638 units during 8M08. Residential segment was much more impacted retreating by 43.8% as compared with 22.2% decline in Apartments & Commercial segment. Similarly, average price per transaction for the 8M09 period reported 27.4% of decline reaching KD653,000/transaction down from KD900,000/transaction during 8M08. Residential segment retreated by 5.3% as compared with 33.8% decline in Apartments & Commercial segment.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Number of Real Estate Transactions
747 167 162 167
000'units 000'units
Number of Real Estate Transactions Y-o-Y Growth
50%
15%
33%
33%
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
50% 70%
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
2008
Apartments & Commercial
2009
Residential Property (sec. axis)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
35%
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
800
132 130 114 127
522
127
700
108
30% 10%
711
102
600
94
6%
89
85
500 400 300
427
482
99
68
92
3%
307
280
280
66%
231
246
24%
205
231
100
Aug
Residential Property
Apartments & Commercial
Source: Ministry of Justice & Global Research
Source: Ministry of Justice & Global Research
On Monthly basis, total number of transitions reported 9.9% decline by the end of August 2009 standing at 374 units as compared to 415 units sold last month. Residential segment retreated by 8.8% while apartments & commercial segment reported 13.0% of monthly decline. Average Price/Trans
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
905 941
000'KD/trans 000'KD/trans
Real estate transactions reported seven month of decline up to the end of July 2009. However, the month of August 2009 witnessed a pickup in residential units sold increasing by 36.6% Y-o-Y. This was directly linked to the latest amendments regarding Laws 8 &9. Average Price/Trans Y-o-Y Growth
50% 30% 10%
7% 4% 49%
242
827
300
738 206 193 193 192 188 185 189 198
647
250 200 150
182
179
221
701
216
202
205
622
615
507
13% 32%
129
444
439
394
387
404
415
20% 45%
100
14% 46%
8%
10% 30%
50 0
50% 70% Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2008
Apartments & Commercial
2009
Residential Property (sec. axis)
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Residential Property Apartments & Commercial
62%
45%
317
2% 7%
4%
Aug
Source: Ministry of Justice & Global Research
Source: Ministry of Justice & Global Research
Residential segment reported signs of marginal recovery increasing by 10.2% to report KD198,000/transaction. Similarly, apartments & commercial segment increased by 5.9% to report KD439,000/transaction by the end of August 2009.
Average price per transaction continued to decline for the first seven month. However, the month of August 2009 witnessed a pickup in apartments & commercial segment increasing by 11.5% Y-o-Y. Residential property segment continued its declining trend retreating by 3.9% Y-o-Y.
Residential Segment
Residential land prices continued to report a declining trend since 2Q08 and up to the end of 1Q09, mainly impacted by laws 8 & 9 for 2008 that hampered residential real estate activity. However, 2Q09 reported signs of slight recovery as compared with 1Q09. Prices picked up slightly in the range of 0.9% to 4.2%. Moving forward, 3Q09 prices are estimated to have kept the positive pace as 2Q09 levels with slight pickup in the range of 3% to 5% in areas like Maseelah, Al Funaytees and Abu Fateera due to Cabinets decisions to allow construction permits in these areas.
12%
29%
179
30%
68%
64% 20%
265
237
256
200
46%
36%
10%
6%
37%
5
Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Residential Land Prices by Area
KD/m2 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Residential Land Prices by Area
KD/m2 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Kuwait (Capital)
Hawally
Farwaniyah
Mubarak Al Kabeer
Ahmadi
Jahra
Source: Kuwait Finance House
Source: Kuwait Finance House
On a Q-0-Q front, the declining trend up to the end of 1Q09 was reversed in 2Q09 with Farwaniyah, Hawally & Kuwait (Capital) growing by 1.8%, 1.6% and 0.9% respectively. However, on a Y-o-Y basis, prices still reflect large decline. Hawally was the largest hit of 23.1% with prices reaching KD500/m2 down from KD650/m2.
On a Q-0-Q front, Mubarak Al Kabeer reported the largest growth of 4.2% with KD386/m2 average price. Jahra & Ahmadi followed with 2.7% and 0.9% of growth respectively. However, on a Y-o-Y basis, prices still reflect large declines of 14.9% and 10.6% for Ahmadi & Mubarak Al Kabeer respectively.
Investment Segment
After reaching highest levels up to 2Q08, Investment properties rentals followed a declining trend up to the end of 1Q09 then stagnated for 2Q09. The decline was mainly due to economic recession and declining demand on investment properties from expatriate population. This was directly linked to financial crisis and expatriates layoffs thus declining demand. Moreover, the increased supply that reached the market had increased vacancy levels. As a result 1Q09 rental rates followed a declining trend for different categories & areas in the range of 2% to 10%. Investment Property Rentals
KD/month 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
Investment Property Rentals
KD/month 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Farwaniya High class 2bed
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Bneid Al Gar
Salmiya 3bed Hawally Jaberiya High class 2bed Sharq
Kheitan
3bed
Source: Kuwait Finance House
Source: Kuwait Finance House
Areas like Jaberiya witnessed 3-bedroom average rentals declining by 5.9% from KD345/month during 2Q08 to reach KD330/month during 2Q09. Salmiya 1-bedroom rentals declined from KD190/month to KD180/month over the same period.
Areas like Kheitan, Farwaniya & Jahra reported rental declines in the range of 6% to 8%. High class 2bedroom average rental declined from KD245/month during 2Q08 to KD230/month during 2Q09. In Jahra, high class 2-bedroom rentals declined from KD245/month to KD225/month.
Commercial Segment
Similar to investment properties rentals, commercial properties rentals followed the same trend. The segment activity is mainly related to the business cycle and the overall economic sentiment. Rentals for both office and retail properties declined sharply during 2009. This was linked to the declining purchasing power for residents whether Kuwaitis or expatriates. Moreover, demand for office space declined with the economic downturn.
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Al Jahra
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Commercial Property Rentals and Growth
KD/m2 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Salmiya Retail growth
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Farwaniya Retail
Kuwait City Office
Source: Kuwait Finance House
Commercial properties rentals declined sharply during 1H09 in the range of 15% to 30%. Kuwait city reported the highest declines during 1Q09 and 2Q09. Rentals for retail properties declined from KD30/m2 during 2008 to KD25/m2 during 1Q09 and 2Q09. Similarly, office space rentals declined from KD12.5/m2 to report an average of KD7-8/m2. Prime commercial areas in Salmiya reported declining trends as well with rentals for the retail and Office segments declining by 20% and 12.5% respectively during 2Q09.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
Residential
Upward
Investment (Apartments)
Downward
Commercial (Retail & Office)
Downward
We expect residential sector to stabilize at current prices with marginal tendency to pick up in specific areas due to the latest cabinet decisions. Thus 4Q09 might witness marginal growth rates in prices. Moving forward, the residential segment is expected to witness price increases in 2010 supported by available financing through Shariaa compliant banks. Generally, residential real estate segment will continue to play the major role in real estate activity. The ongoing population growth among Kuwaiti nationals will continue to depict an under supplied market. Finally, two other reasons might give a push to the sector during 2010 namely; the declining building materials cost and CBK easing credit regulations to support economic activity especially when coupled with a declining inflation profile. Looking forward, investment properties rentals are expected to stagnate up to the end of the year. The ongoing construction activity has lead to increasing supply that will not be matched with increasing demand in the next period due to economic slowdown. Moreover, vacancies are expected to climb even more as developers are still erecting new complexes at a high pace. Expectations of an upward trend in rentals are not expected soon as it would be directly linked to economic recovery for different sectors during the course of 2010. Rentals are expected to stagnate at current levels in different areas. However, the delivery of new supply will be exerting more downward pressure on rentals during 2010 for both retail and office space. Thus, any recovery will be directly linked to economic activity and signs of positive growth for 2010.
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Hawally Office growth
7
Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Oman Real Estate Sector
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
Visas for foreign property owners...
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Oman government issued a clarification over visa for foreign property owners. Foreign property buyers will get a full residence visa only after the title deed has been changed to their names. Home buyers will get a multiple three week visiting visa each time they come when their property is under construction. Then they can apply for a two year residency after the completion of the deeds. Buyers are also entitled to get residency visas for their family and parents. The residency will be cancelled and is transferable to the new owner when the property is sold.
The law is expected to increase the demand for integrated tourist complexes where foreign ownership is allowed. These include the Wave, Salalah Beach Resort, Barr Al-Jissah, Yiti Resort, Muscat Hills, Blue City and Jebel Sifah.
New Law governing the real estate sector...
Omani officials are considering a new law that will address potential problems in the real estate industry arising as a result of the global financial crisis. It will include provisions requiring the establishment of escrow accounts for the sale of property by developers. The developer may use the money in the escrow account only for developing the project. The new law is also expected to include provisions that restrict developers from advertising or marketing the sale of units before obtaining written approval from government authorities.
The escrow accounts would protect buyers of property from developers that go bankrupt or abandon a project before it is completed. Also, the marketing restriction would allow the government to ensure that a development has sound financials before properties are offered to the public. The new law will help protect buyers from losing money on properties that are not completed.
Performance
The real estate and construction sectors continued to grow in 2Q 2009, according to the ministry of National Economy in Oman. The real estate sector grew by 14.6% y-o-y while the construction sector grew by 5.9%, however, lower than the 61.9% y-o-y growth witnessed in 2Q 2008. Like other GCC countries, Oman witnessed considerable growth in its real estate sector prior to the global financial crisis. Average Residential Rentals
OR/Sqm
Average Residential Sales Prices
OR/Sqm
6 5 4 3 2 1 Al Khuwair
Source: ERA Oman
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
Qurum
Al Azaiba Al Ghubra Muttrah
2 BD Apt
Source: ERA Oman
3 BD Apt
3 BD Villa 4 BD Villa 5 BD Villa
The crisis had little effect on residential prices and rents which are now stabilizing. According to the ministry of national Economy, the price index for rent stood at 146.7 for the 9-month ending Sep. 2009 compared to 124.9 in the same period of 2008. Rental prices in the capital ranged from OR150 to OR700. Sale prices, on the other hand, average around OR500, while reaching more than OR1100 in high end residential areas.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Average Monthly Office Rental Rates
OR/sqm
Performance of Hotel Industry (YoY Growth)
70% 60%
12 10
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 5 Star Rev 5 Star Occupany 4 Star Rev 4 Star Occupancy
8 6 4
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
2 0 Al Qurum Gubrah Al Seeb Khuwair North
Source: ERA Oman
Al Hail
Q2 2008
Source: Ministry of National Economy,
Q2 2009
The majority of office supply and demand is concentrated around Muscat where average monthly office rents are currently between OR7-10 per sqm. However, As Muscat is getting increasingly congested, the growth is now happening in Qurum Commercial Center, Khuwair, and Azaiba.
The hospitality segment has been an important segment in Oman over the past couple of years as the country gained a preferred status as a tourist destination. However, the crisis affected the sector which grew marginally by 0.5%in 2Q 2009 on a YoY basis compared to a growth rate of 36.4% in 2Q 2008. Likewise, revenues of four and five star hotels and occupancy rates were lower on YoY basis in 2Q 2009.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
Residential
Stable
Office Space
Stable
Hospitality
Downward
Demand in Oman has been to a great extent endogenous. The population in Oman is growing, and around 43% of Omanis are under the age of 14. Industry sources estimates that 20,000 to 25,000 units are needed over the next few years to keep up with increasing demand. However, due to the financial crisis and the lack of financing we expect lower demand in the short term. We expect slower economic growth to lead to a flattening of demand in 2010. In addition, over 200,000 sqm of office space is scheduled for delivery in Muscat by 2012, predominantly located in Azaiba Business Park and Al Qurum City Centre. With major developed economies across the globe slipping into recession, we could see a decline in tourists visiting Oman in 2009. In the medium term through 2011, we could as well see a major decline in the influx, as 44.4% of Oman's tourist count is comprised of residents of US, UK and other major developed economies. The major projects in Muscat are expected to add about 5,500 rooms to the already existing 4 and 5-star rooms through 2012 leading to an oversupply. Accordingly, we have a negative medium term outlook for the hospitality segment.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Qatar Real Estate Sector
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
Amendments to rent law no 4 of 2008.
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Cabinet approved draft law to attract more investment & allow full foreign ownership.
The Emir H H Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani issued Law No. (20) of 2009, amending some provisions of the law No. (4) of 2008 on properties rent. The rent law has been amended making eviction of a tenant from a rented property more difficult. A landlord can now ask a tenant to vacate a property only if it is needed for personal use. However, the landlord should serve a notice to the tenant at least six months in advance. Moreover, contrary to anticipations, the amendments do not give landlords the right to raise rentals. On a related development; Qatari Chamber of Commerce and Industry (QCCI) symposium called for separate rent law for commercial and industrial outlets. This is mainly as owners of these properties are facing problems in the event of evicting occupants for the sake of demolition of the property or for other purposes. The cabinet approved a draft law amending some provisions of Law No. 13 of 2000 organizing the investment of non-Qatari capital in the economic sector. The amendment aims to attract more foreign investment to the country taking into consideration that the current law allows non-Qataris to have complete ownership of firms in certain fields such as health, education and agriculture after approval from the minister of business and trade. In other sectors, non-Qataris can own only 49% of a firm. The new law allows foreign investors to hold 100% stake in the sectors of; consultative and technical work services, the information and technology sector, and distribution services.
The amendments introduced are expected to have positive impact on the real estate market. It will help to stabilize the market and curb excessive increase in rental rates. Moreover, it will reduce disputes between landlords and tenants. Such stability in the market will help to reflect real prices and rentals in the market and thus avoid speculative actions. On another front, the Rent Dispute Settlement Committee (RDSC) which was set up by Law No. 4 of 2008, will not receive any complaint from a tenant unless the latter produces a rent contract registered at RDSC office. However, tenants who seek a proof of landlord-tenant relationship for previous leases which were signed before February 15, 2008 can approach RDSC even without a registered contract. The amendment also empowers the respective ministers to relax the law on foreign investment in nine key sectors including agriculture, industry, health, education, tourism and natural resources' development. Looking forward, the landmark decision is expected to add muscle to the country's booming economy. As a result, the business community has hailed the decision and termed the amendment as timely and predicted a huge foreign cash flow into the country. The increased inflow of foreign investment will create more demand on real estate sector especially office and residential segments thus supporting the sector's growth.
Qatari government plans to cut corporate tax rate.
Qatar decided to cut corporate tax rates to 10%, from 35% starting January 2010. The decision aims for encouraging foreign investment in the country as it improves the attraction of Qatar as a business hub and send the right signals that Qatar is open to do business.
Market experts foresee the decision will encourage more foreign investment into Qatar as there will be more transparency and equality between foreign and domestic businesses. The decision will shed its impact on real estate sector as well due to increased business opportunities and the direct linkage with demand on office and residential properties.
Performance
Qatar real estate sector reported a declining trend during 2009 after reaching record highs during the boom period last three years. Moving forward, the impact of the financial crisis and economic slowdown was reflected on real estate sectors in the region during 2009 and Qatar was not an exception. However, currently Qatari real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery is expected by 2H2010.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Apartments Resale Prices
QR/m2 26,000 23,000 20,000 17,000 14,000 11,000 8,000 5,000
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Apartments Resale Prices
QR/m2 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
2Q09* 1Q09
Porto Arabia
Viva Bahriya From To
Qanat Quartier Average
Pearl average
West Bay From To Average
Lusail
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Source: Asteco& Global Research
Source: Asteco & Global Research
Pearl is the first project offering ownership by foreigners in Qatar. On YTD basis, average apartments' resale prices declined by more than 30% due to stress selling and economic slowdown. However 3Q09 witnessed marginal declines of 4% from 2Q09. Generally, within Pearl project, Porto Arabia reported the largest declines during 2009.
Other prime locations like Lusail and West Bay witnessed the same declining trend during 2009. On YTD basis, prices declined by 34% and 14% on average in Lusail and West bay respectively by the end of 2Q09. As for 3Q09, industry sources are indicating signs of stabilization with marginal declines in some locations.
Generally, residential segment reported average declines in prices of 30% on YTD terms. The major declines were almost seen in prime locations and projects like Pearl, West Bay and Lusail. On the sales front, 3Q09 continued to report stagnant activity where apartment sales declined in volume however; asking prices almost stagnated at the same level as 2Q09 with developers trying to hold their prices while repackaging payment terms with lower deposit payments. Declines were mainly reported in secondary market especially for Pearl project and West Bay. This is mainly as owners of projects approaching handover are able to offer their units at prices much lower than developers asking prices while realizing gains on their investments. Average Apartments Rentals
QR/m 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 2Q09* 2Q09* 1Q09 2Q09*
Average Apartments Rentals
QR/m 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
2Q09* 2Q09* 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08
Al Saad Low
Bin Mahmoud High Average
Al Muntazah
Najma Low
Al Maamoura High Average
Bin Omran
* Estimates Source: Asteco & Global Research
* Estimates Source: Asteco & Global Research
By the end of 2Q09, average rentals in Al Muntazah declined the most by 11% on YTD basis. Rentals in Al Saad area stabilized as demand from expatriates is high due to proximity to commercial facilities. Bin Mahmoud area reported marginal declines. Finally, 3Q09 rentals are estimated to have stabilized with marginal declined in some areas older residential districts up to 5%.
Other older residential districts witnessed YTD declines in average rentals in the range of 5% to 15%. Declines were mainly due to declining demand in such areas shifting to new projects approaching completion. During 2Q09, rentals in Al Maamoura are estimated to have declined the most by 15% followed by Najma declining by 12% and finally Bin Omran declined by 7%.
11
Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Average Apartments Rentals
QR/m 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
West Bay Low
* Estimates Source: Asteco & Global Research
2Q09*
High
Average
Porto Arabia
Rentals in new residential districts such as West Bay and Pearl were more stable due to shifting demand by expatriates to relocate in such areas. As a result rentals did not witness steep declines as other areas, retreating by 7% on YTD basis in West Bay by the end of 2Q09. However, the increased demand on apartments located in Porto Arabia gave a sort of stability in rentals that appreciated marginally by 2% during 3Q09. Average Villas Rentals
QR/m 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000
3Q08 4Q08 3Q08 4Q08 3Q08 4Q08 3Q08 1Q09* 1Q09* 1Q09* 4Q08 1Q09*
Average Villas Rentals
QR/m 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Dafna
Abu Hamour / Ain Khaled Al Hilal Low High Average
Al Rawdah
West Bay Low High Average
West Bay Lagoon
Source: Asteco & Global Research
Source: Asteco & Global Research
On a Q-0-Q front, villa rentals in older business districts declined marginally in the range of 4% to 6% by the end of 1Q09. However, on YTD basis rentals in such areas are estimated to have declined by 10% to 15% up to the end of 3Q09 with signs of stabilization that rentals reached a bottom levels. Average Office Rentals
QR/m2/m 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Rentals in new projects were more impacted as rentals reached speculative levels during 2008. Villa rentals in West Bay declined by 20% by the end of 1Q09. Moving forward, rentals in new projects are estimated to have continued declining in 3Q09 however at lower rates to report YTD declines of 30%.
3Q08
4Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
3Q09
West Bay
C ring road Low
D ring road High
Average
Source: Asteco & Global Research
Office rentals in older business district were impacted more as compared with new business district or grade A office space in Diplomatic district. This was due to the dual impact of financial crises and declining demand as business is relocating in new business district such as West Bay due to the
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2Q09
Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
availability of smart buildings with services and facilities. Thus, many government institutions and international companies in the hydrocarbon sector and financial services were located in the new district creating increasing demand up to the end of 2008. Entering 2009, office space in D ring road reported YTD decline of 30% on average by the end of 2Q09 reaching QR160/m2/m. Similarly, rentals in new business district reported declines however at lower rate of 25% on average reaching QR200/m2/m. Rentals are estimated to have maintained the same level during 3Q09 with marginal declines in older business district in the range of 5% to 10%.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Residential Apartments)
(Mid
class
Stable
Residential (Upper Apartments & Villas)
class
Downward
Office space
Stable
Residential mid class apartments will continue to be under supplied as almost all projects are concentrated in the upper class. Thus prices & rentals will maintain their levels for the medium to short terms with a potential of growth in the longer term. This is directly related to population demographics and increased demand from young population entering the job market and newly married relocating from their families' houses. The ongoing delivery of new projects & units will lead to increasing supply at a higher rate than increased demand. As a result rentals might decline or stabilize at current levels for the short to medium term. The performance will depend to a great extent on the economic performance and business activity where increased business activity will be translated in new employment and thus relocation in such new high class residential areas. Rentals are expected to stagnate at current levels for the short run especially in the new business district. However, rentals in older business district might witness further declines up to 10% in the short term due to shifting or relocating from older business district to new prime locations. Looking forward, the delivery of new supply -if not matched with increased demand- will be exerting more downward pressure on rentals in both segments during 2010 and 2011. However, the optimistic scenario of growing business activity might mean sustaining rentals levels for office space in prime locations.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
KSA Real Estate Sector
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
New Mortgage Law...
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
The market in Saudi Arabia still awaits the passing of the new mortgage law which was announced earlier this year. It will include provisions which can be used by the banks to establish a separate mortgage business that is not subject to the provisions of the Banking Control Law. According to the latest published data by SAMA, total credit extended in Saudi Arabia declined by 0.4% in Sep-09 from 2008 year-end level to reach SR741.51bn in Sep-09. Credit to the building and construction sector declined by 10% in Sep-09 from 2008 year-end level to reach SR49.19bn.
The law will help in establishing the overall regulatory framework for the mortgage financing in the kingdom. It is crucial because it will organize the relationship between various stakeholders. It will create secure mortgage business for Saudi banks and will boost investors' confidence. The new law will also stimulate demand for the Kingdom's real estate property market.
Performance
Riyadh Residential Rates (SR/sqm/pa)
Avg Sales Price
Jeddah Residential Rates (SR/sqm/pa)
Avg Sales Price
Premium Rent
Premium Rent
Avg Rent
Avg Rent
0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
0
500
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Source: Colliers International, Global Research
Source: Colliers International, Global Research
Unlike other GCC countries which witnessed significant leaps in prices during boom times, the Saudi property market grew modestly driven mainly by fundamentals rather than speculation. Hence, since the start the effect of the financial crisis on the market was not dire. According to colliers international, rentals and prices in residential units in Riyadh declined by an average of 6% and 20% respectively in 3Q 2009 on a y-o-y basis. While in Jeddah, rents dropped by 5% on average in 3Q 2009 on a y-o-y basis. It is worth noting however that the price decline for luxury housing was steeper than that of affordable housing. Office Vacancy Rates
% 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Riyadh
Source: Colliers
Top CBD Rental Rates
SR/sqm/pa
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Jeddah
Eastern Province
Source: CB Richard Ellis
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
In the office segment, vacancy levels have increased as new supply is entering the market. Riyadh which is considered the main business center in Saudi witnessed the largest increase in vacancy rates which stood at an average of 17% according to Colliers, while vacancy rates in Jeddah stood at 7.5%. In the eastern province, the office segment which is mainly dominated by Khobar and Dammam vacancies increased at an average of 8% to 10%.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
Residential
Stable
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Office Space
Downward
Unlike other markets, the Saudi property market is driven by young, local and growing population seeking affordable accommodation. New supply of residential units in the Kingdom has been mainly skewed towards high end developments creating a shortage of affordable housing. Saudi Arabia is expected to face a shortfall of up to 1mn housing units by 2012. In addition, the introduction of the new mortgage law which is expected by the end of 2009 is expected to increase the demand for residential property. Over 550,000 sqm of Net Leasable Area is expected to enter the market in two years in Riyadh, while more than 300,000 sqm of office space is expected to be delivered in Jeddah before 2011. Al Khobar and Dammam office supply is expected to grow by over 8,700 sqm by the end of 2010.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
UAE Real Estate Sector
3Q Highlights
Latest Development Impact
Dubai Metro Launch...
On 09/09/09 Dubai launched the first metro system in the Gulf. Currently, only 10 stops are operational, with the remaining stations on the Red Line to be opened in phases over the coming months.
UAE foreign ownership laws...
It is too early to witness the effect of the Metro on prices. However, in the long run areas in the vicinity of Metro stations such as the Marina, Business Bay, Downtown Burj Dubai, DIFC and the Trade Centre), are expected to witness increases in prices in the range of 5 to 15%. This law may negatively affect rental rates in free zones and increase the competition between free zones and non-free zones. Although the proposed merger will improve the credit profile of the merged entities and provide better access to funding, it raises concerns about the implications of Dubai Holdings' vast land bank in Dubai on Emaar. The mortgage market in the UAE is still facing difficulties. The two mortgage lenders in the UAE, Amlak and Tamweel, have stopped their lending since the fourth quarter of 2008. We believe that the mortgage market will pick up once the real estate market bounces back and starts to show some signs of recovery. This announcement came as setback to Dubai as it shook investors' confidence in the emirate's ability to repay its debts which are close to US$80bn.
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
The Cabinet is considering raising the foreign ownership ceiling from the current 49%. The law to allow 100% foreign investment is still under study.
Emaar merger with Dubai Holding's real estate units in progress...
Merger plans were announced between Emaar and Dubai Holding's three real-estate units, Dubai Properties, Sama Dubai and Tatweer.
Real Estate Financing...
Real estate mortgage loans stood at AED129.06bn in Mar-2009and grew by 3% in from 2008 year-end level according to the latest available data by the UAE central bank, while credit to the construction sector declined by 9% in 2009 from 2008 year-end level to reach AED108.9bn.
Dubai World Restructuring...
Dubai World, a fully-owned entity of the Dubai government, announced on November 25 its intention to restructure the debt of Dubai World and Nakheel, its subsidiary. Dubai World is seeking a six-month "standstill" on its debts with all lenders. The standstill is intended to extend the maturity for Dubai World's debt and financing for its subsidiaries including Nakheel which has a US$3.65bn sukuk due this month.
Performance
Land Transactions in Dubai
AED/Bn
Dubai Residential Sales Prices
AED/Sqft
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
Source: Dubai Land Department,
1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 Q1 08
Source: Landmark Advisory
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09 Villas
Q2 09
Q3 09
Apartment
The total value of land sale transactions in Dubai continued to slide in 2009. Real estate sales and prices continued their downward trend in 3Q 2009. As mentioned in our previous report, off-plan sales and the sales in the secondary market is witnessing the largest decline in prices. During 3Q 2009, investors' appetite remained low for off-plan properties. Prices in developments such as Dubai Marina, the Downtown Burj Dubai and communities such as the Meadows, Emirates Hills and the springs, showed signs of stabilization in sale prices, with some developments witnessing minor increases in prices.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Average Apartment Rental Rate in Dubai (Aug-2009)
AED/pa
Average Villa Rental Rate in Dubai (Aug-2009)
AED/pa 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Downtown Burj Dubai Marina Dubai Greens Palm Jumeirah Jumeirah Lake Towers
50,000 Jumeirah Islands Source: Landmarck Advisory Meadows Palm Jumeirah 3 BR 4 BR Springs
2 BR
3 BR
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Source: Landmarck Advisory
In Dubai's residential segment, the villa segment performed better than apartments. According to Landmark Advisory, villas prices increased 8% on q-o-q basis, while apartment prices fell only 3% in 3Q09, in comparison to falling 17% during 2Q. Average Apartment Rental Rate in Abu Dhabi (3Q-09)
AED/pa 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Khalidiyah Source: Asteco Corniche Passport Road Khalifa Street Airport Road 2 BR 3 BR
Leasing rates for villas in Dubai have increased 6%, while apartment rents dropped 17% during 3Q09 on a q-o-q basis. Lower consumer demand as well as the entrance of new housing stock into the market has pushed rental prices down by 20%-30% since the beginning of 2009. Average Villa Rental Rate in Abu Dhabi (3Q-2009)
AED/pa 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Khalidiya Airport 3 BR Source: Asteco Raha Gardens 4 BR Khalifa A Sas Al Nakheel
In Abu Dhabi, average prices for apartments have declined up to 10%-15% since May 2009 according to Landmark Advisory, while villa prices remained stable, only declining up to 5%. Developments on Al Reem Island and Al Bandar on Al Raha Beach, both due for completion during 2Q/3Q 2010, are still maintaining secondary market premiums. Likewise rental rates followed the same trend with villas witnessing lower decline rates on a q-o-q basis relative to apartments. Average Office Rentals in Dubai (3Q 2009)
AED/Sqft/pa
Average Office Rentals in Abu Dhabi (3Q 2009)
AED/Sqft/pa
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Source: Asteco
Source: Asteco
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Dubai's office prices went down 10% in 3Q09, while rents declined only 4% in 3Q 2009 as the market continues to suffer from weak demand. Dubai International Financial Center was the only area witnessing a positive change of 6% in 3Q 2009 on a q-o-q basis. The office market in Abu Dhabi witnessed a marginal decline of 3% in sale prices in 3Q 09 on a q-o-q basis. Rents fell between 5%-15% on Abu Dhabi Island, with off-island rents falling 20% in 3Q09.
Market Forecast
Segment Future Trend Rationale
Dubai Residential
Downward
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Dubai Office Space
Downward
Abu Dhabi Residential
Downward
Abu Dhabi Office Space
Downward
We expect prices and rents to fall further, however, at lower rates than those witnessed in previous quarters. While there have been a large number of projects delayed or cancelled, around 22,400 residential units are expected to be completed across Dubai in 2009. In addition, with shrinking population, limited financing, and buyer delinquencies, we do not expect prices to bottom out before 2Q 2010. New supply and lower demand will further push down rents and prices. According to a latest report by Jones Lang LaSalle, 25mn sqft of additional office space is expected to enter the market by the end of 2011, which will increase vacancy rates and put further downward pressure on rentals. A significant volume of upcoming stock is located in the Business Bay development. The correction in Dubai's residential market has lured many residents in Abu Dhabi to relocate to Dubai, putting downward pressure on prices and rents. Also new supply entering the market will further push down rents and prices. Slower economic activity and new supply will force prices and rents to continue their correcting trend.
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Global GCC Real Estate Quarterly
Selected GCC Real Estate Listed Companies
Company UAE ALDAR Properties Arabtec Holding Deyaar Development Co. Emaar Properties RAK Properties Sorouh Real Estate Co. Union Properties Kuwait Abyaar Real Estate Development Co. Al Mazaya Holding Co. First Dubai Real Estate Development Co. IFA Hotels and Resorts Injazzat Real Estate Development Co. Mabanee Co. National Real Estate Co. Salhia Real Estate Co. Tamdeen Real Estate Co. The Commercial Real Estate Co. United Real Estate Co. Saudi Arabia Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. Emaar the Economic City Jabal Omar Development Co. Saudi Real Estate Co. Taiba Holding Co. Qatar Barwa Real Estate Co. Ezdan Real Estate Co. Qatar Real Estate Investment Co. United Development Co. Bahrain Inovest* Seef Properties Oman Sahara Hospitality Co. Bloomberg Ticker ALDAR UH ARTC UH DEYAAR UH EMAAR UH RAKPROP UH SOROUH UH UPP UH Current Mkt Cap Stock Performance (%) Price (in USD mn) 1m 3m 12m 4.5 2.5 0.6 3.4 0.6 2.5 0.8 3,137 814 959 5,604 316 1,715 687 (16) (18) (16) (17) (21) (23) (19) (8) (14) (16) (4) (21) (18) (18) (12) 9 (16) 13 (1) (22) (23) P/E P/BV Earnings (in USD mn) (TTM) (TTM) 9M09 9M08 7.2 4.2 6.4 4.8 13.3 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.4 427 139 58 (107) 49 125 (95) 915 207 318 1,313 89 494 218
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
ABYAAR KK MAZAYA KK FIRSTDUB KK IFAHR KK INJAZZAT KK MABANEE KK NRE KK SRE KK TAM KK ALTIJARI KK URC KK
0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
174 245 144 795 191 1,077 622 307 353 660 215
(10) (11) (21) (3) (6) (3) (24) 1 (14) (13) -
(46) (22) (37) (33) (23) (6) (30) 2 (7) (15) (7)
(79) (66) (77) (17) (42) (13) (18) (2) (17) (15) (22)
2.5 4.8 26.2 7.1 3.5 50.5 9.2 42.0 116.4
0.2 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.6 2.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4
18 35 (32) 107 10 53 72 18 7 63 6
85 176 121 44 51 74 72 (45) 124 97 26
ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB JOMAR AB SRECO AB TIRECO AB
16 10 19 29 16
4,537 2,351 3,365 881 656
(2) (0) (1) 10 (1)
2 9 (0) 15 2
2 25 4 66 18
8.8 39.3 30.5
1.3 1.1 NA 1.1 0.9
441 (64) (6) 19 12
495 (64) NA 28 34
BRES QD ERES QD QRES QD UDCD QD
34 63 26 35
2,429 7,942 610 1,025
3 (11) (0) (3)
(3) 55 37 176 6 (1) (9) 43
12.9 24.9 9.2 5.8
1.8 4.3 1.1 1.5
171 82 46 111
82 135 65 98
INOVEST BI SEEF BI
0.6 0.2
147 183
(8) 3
(27) 13
(46) 6
1.6 4.4
0.6 0.7
17 16
71 17
SAHS OM
1.9
29
-
-
(5)
8.8
1.2
3
2
All current prices are in local currency as on December 3rd 2009 unless otherwise mentioned. * Current price in USD Source: Bloomberg, & Zawya
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Global Investment House Global Tower Website: www.globalinv.net Sharq, Al-Shuhada Str. Tel. + (965) 2 295 1000 P.O. Box: 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait Fax. + (965) 2 295 1005
Brokerage Khaled Abd Elrahman Khaled (965) 2295-1700 kkhalid@global.com.kw Wealth Management International Fahad Al-Ibrahim (965) 2295-1400 fahad@global.com.kw Global Kuwait Tel: (965) 2 295 1000 Fax: (965) 2 295 1005
P.O.Box 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait
GCC Real Estate Sector 3Q2009
Research Faisal Hasan, CFA (965) 2295-1270 fhasan@global.com.kw Wealth Management Kuwait Rasha Al-Qenaei (965) 2295-1380 alqenaei@global.com.kw
Global Bahrain Tel: (973) 17 210011 Fax: (973) 17 210222 P.O.Box 855 Manama, Bahrain Global Saudi Arabia Tel: (966) 1 2199966 Fax: (966) 1 2178481
P.O. Box 66930 Riyadh 11586, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Index Rasha Al-Huneidi (965) 2295-1285 huneidi@global.com.kw
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Disclaimer
This document and its contents are prepared for your personal use for information purposes only and is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell a security or enter into any other agreement. Projections of potential risk or return are illustrative, and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. The information and any views expressed are given as at the date of writing and subject to change. While the information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Global Investment House, its affiliates and subsidiaries can accept no liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents. At any time, Global Investment House or its employees may have a position, subject to change, in any securities or instruments referred to, or provide services to the issuer of those securities or instruments.
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