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Markaz: Real Estate Research

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Real Estate Market Commentary - 8 to 14 April 2012

Apr 18, 2012
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Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary

Real Estate Market Commentary
08-Apr-12 to 14-Apr-12
Kuwait: Kuwait Finance House in its Q4-11 report highlighted an increase in the sales prices of investment land across locations, with increases ranging from c.2-11%. Furthermore, commercial real estate prices stabilized in Q4-11, with Hawalli posting a moderate increase of 3.2%, and Ahmadi posting a 2.4% increase Q-o-Q. On the rental front, the report outlined stability in average apartment rental rates with increases mainly in rates for high-end units. Occupancy rates remained at high levels of c.9095%. Furthermore, the report indicated stability in rentals of commercial properties. UAE: UAE's Minister of Finance reportedly urged to real estate developers in the emirates to slow down residential projects, aimed at balancing the oversupply in the market assisted by, an estimated inrush of expatriates to UAE for jobs in the near future. He particularly pointed out to the low demand to supply ratio (c.20%) in suburban areas, against a healthy ratio of c.90% inside the cities, indicating that; current oversupply in suburban areas was c.80%, while oversupply inside cities was only c.10%. Employment consultant firm Gulf Talent's job market overview, indicated a revival in employment levels in Dubai in 2011, as the share of vacancies advertised on its website shot up to 37% from 31% a year earlier. Gulf Talent also guided for a 5.1% average salary hike for 2012 in the UAE. Gulf Talent's job market overview also outlined a stable trend of Dubai-based professionals traveling to Abu Dhabi for work at 5.4% for both 2010 & 2011. In a separate report, another consultant Antal International noted a 13% Y-o-Y decline in hiring activity in Dubai for Q1-12; but foresees a recovery in employment activity during the rest of 2012. Bahrain: Cluttons reportedly observed a flat trend in the residential rental market in its Q1-12 report, with only areas close to perceived `trouble areas' witnessing a correction and, expected overall rentals to remain largely flat in the recent future. The report also alluded to a downtrend in the residential sales market with many transactions resulting in losses for sellers. On the office front, rentals reportedly edged down compared to Q3-11 and Cluttons expects this downtrend to continue on higher supply side competition, as tenants seek small, fully-fitted office space against larger, unfitted units. Jordan: According to Jordan's Department of Land & Survey, the total number of real estate transactions registered for Q1-12 was 22,414 against 26,816 in Q1-11, representing a decline of 16.4%. Furthermore the total value transacted contracted 39.4% from USD2.4Bn in Q1-11 to USD1.5Bn. MENA: According to JLL, real estate deals in MENA region grew 20.3% Y-o-Y in 2011 to USD166 Bn. This was lesser than the 30.6% Y-o-Y surge in the global property transactions to USD418 Bn. JLL expects the global deal values to be c. USD 400bn in 2012 on absence of large, oneoff deals compared to 2011.

Contents Market Commentary Charts to Note Activity Monitor: Dubai, Kuwait, Riyadh - KSA, Dammam KSA Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type "MRKZ" Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets

Thomas K. Mathew Senior Research Analyst +965 2224 8000 Extn: 2712 tmathew@markaz.com Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA Assistant Manager +965 2224 8548 rvenkateshwaran@markaz.com Bassam N. Al-Othman Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011 bothman@markaz.com

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz" P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828 markaz.com

Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.

Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Charts to note:
Chart 1: Kuwait Residential Land Prices Q4-11
1,000 800 600 800 600

400
400 200 0 Capital Hawalli Farwaniyah Ahmadi Jahraa Mubarak AlKabeer

200
0

Price (KWD/Sqm)
Source: KFH Kuwait Real Estate Report, Q4-11

Value - RHS (KWD'000)

Chart 2: Kuwait Commercial Land Prices Q4-11
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,500 2,000

3,000
2,000 1,000

1,500
1,000 500

0 Capital Hawalli Farwaniyah Ahmadi Jahraa

0

Price (KWD/Sqm)
Source: KFH Kuwait Real Estate Report, Q4-11

Value - RHS (KWD'000)

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

2

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Chart 3: Apartment rental trends in Kuwait Capital and Hawalli

Source: KFH Kuwait Real Estate Report Q4-11, Markaz analysis

Chart 4: Apartment rental trends in Kuwait Other governorates

Source: KFH Kuwait Real Estate Report Q4-11, Markaz analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

3

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Chart 5: Real Estate Transactions Market Comparison Q1-12

Source: Dubai Land Department, MOJ KSA, MOJ Kuwait, DLS Jordan

Exhibit 1: Rental trends discussed at a glance
Kuwait Commercial Rentals Q4-11 (KWD/Sqm/pm) Salemiyah 15.0 24.0 15.0 7.0 Hawalli 13.0 21.5 13.0 6.5 Farwaniyah 12.5 30.0 12.5 6.5 Khaitan 11.0 21.5 11.0 6.5 Al-ManqafAzizia 11.0 20.0 11.0 7.5 Fahaheel 12.0 25.0 12.0 6.5 Dajij (Farwaniyah ) 2.5 9.0 5.5 0.0

Basement Ground Mezzanine Offices

Source: KFH Kuwait Real Estate Report, Q4-11

Bahrain Rentals* (Residential- BHD/pm, Office- BHD/Sqm/pm) Villas Office Office (Shell Appt (2BR) (4BR) (Fitted) & Core) 4.5 4.8 Q1-12 From 700 1,000 5.0 5.0 Q3-11 760 1,400 8.5 7.0 Q1-12 To 780 1,300 9.0 7.5 Q3-11
Source: Cluttons Bahrain Report, Q1-12; *- indicative range

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

4

Villa

Land

Total

No. of Transactions

No. of Transactions

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apartment

Transactions

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

70

Villa Transactions

Land Transactions

Activity Monitor

-

-

5
No. -7.7% 1.5% 53.7% 41.6% 106.0% 98.7% 49.0% 77.5% -29.4% 82.5% 81.3% No. No. Value 21.4% Value Value Value -8.2% 89.9%

No. -9.2% 55.8%

W-o-W Y-o-Y

No. of transactions

Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

No. of transactions

Value transacted (AED Mn)

Value transacted (AED Mn)

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012

0

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

5

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

No. of Transactions

Apartment Transactions

100

300

400

500

200

600

-

No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)

Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date 2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012

0

100

300

400

500

200

600

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

6

Total

No. of Transactions

No. of Transactions

100

150

300

350

200

250

Private Residential

50

0

30

40

50

60

70

Investment

Commercial

10

20

0

Source: MOJ, Kuwait

Source: MOJ, Kuwait

Transactions

No. 107.6% N.A. N.A.

No.

No.

No.

Value 24.3%

Value

Value 42.6%

Value 5.4% 36.4%

W-o-W
125.6%

Investment Property transactions
378.9% -95.9% 27.7% 75.4% -50.0% -10.0% 55.2% 80.8%

Y-o-Y

No. of transactions

Private Residential Property transactions

Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

No. of transactions
Value transacted (KWD Mn)

Value transacted (KWD Mn)

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012

0
50 60 70

0

30

40

10

20

100

160

180

120

140

20

40

60

80

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

Value Transacted (KWD Mn)

Value Transacted (KWD Mn)

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

7

Total

Source: MOJ

Source: MOJ

No. of Transactions

No. of Transactions

100 500

200

300

350

450

150

250

400

Residential

Commercial

Transactions

Riyadh Real Estate Transactions

Riyadh Residential transactions

1,000

1,500

2,500

3,000

2,000

Riyadh Commercial transactions

50

0 0
No. -45.2% 36.5% -8.6% 16.5% 45.2% No. No. Value Value Value 41.2%

W-o-W

KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

No. of Transactions No. of Transactions
-32.6%

Y-o-Y

-60.3%

-32.1%

-47.0%

-32.8%

-62.1%

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012

0

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

500

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

1,000

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1,500

8

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Total

Source: MOJ

Source: MOJ

No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions

100

200

300

600

400

500

0

120

160

180

100

140

Residential

Commercial

Transactions

Dammam Real Estate Transactions

20
-55.3% -16.2% -74.9% -10.3% -41.7%

40

60

80

0

No. Value No. Value No. Value
-17.5%

W-oW

Dammam Residential transactions

Dammam Commercial transactions

No. of Transactions
-63.0%

Y-o-Y

-59.4%

-75.7%

-60.2%

-56.1%

-59.3%

No. of Transactions Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012

W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012

Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"

0
800 1,200

0

200

400

600

200

400

600

800

1,000

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

1,000

1,600

1,800

1,200

1,400

9

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

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