May 10, 2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary
Real Estate Market Commentary
29-Apr-12 to 05-May-12
Kuwait: The Central Statistical Office (CSO), in its latest monthly release, indicated that average inflation edged up 0.8% M-o-M in Mar12, despite a 0.1% M-o-M drop in housing rentals. On a Y-o-Y basis, overall inflation was much higher at 4.1%, while the corresponding housing component increased 1.5%. Though both housing costs and overall inflation have increased from Mar-11, housing costs have remained mostly flat since Dec-11. Qatar: Property consultants DTZ in their Q1-12 report outlined a slight uptrend in residential rentals on a Q-o-Q basis, primarily due to an influx of expatriates for work. High-end accommodations at locations such as Diplomatic District and Pearl primarily led this rise, and apartment occupancy rates at these locations were above 95%, according to DTZ. Earlier, Asteco had reported stable residential rentals, while CBRE and NAI Qatar had observed marginal declines. Asteco had also outlined strong rental demand at Pearl. DTZ further noted that, the uptrend was more prominent for apartments, while the villa market remained flat. In contrast, Asteco had observed stability in both apartment and villa rentals, while CBRE and NAI Qatar had reported stable rental rates for apartments and marginal erosion of villa rentals. DTZ also highlighted strong residential sales demand at Pearl, in line with Asteco. On the office front, DTZ reported a diminishing oversupply situation due to strong demand, which helped stabilize rentals on a Q-o-Q basis. This was in tandem with Asteco's observation, but contrasted with NAI Qatar observation of a decline in office rentals. DTZ noted stable rentals for prime office space in areas such as Diplomatic District, Airport Road, Ring Road C & D, Al Sadd and Salwa Road. However, NAI Qatar outlined significant declines in prime office rentals at many of these locations (Airport Road: 6.3% Q-o-Q, Al Sadd: 2.9% and Salwa Road: 7.6%). DTZ estimates rentals to remain mostly stable in 2012, in line with Asteco. Lebanon: Citing figures from the Directorate of Real Estate, Bank Audi reported an 8% Y-o-Y growth in property sales to c.USD2 Bn in Q1-12. However, the number of sales transactions declined 3.4% Y-o-Y to 16,784. Transactions by foreigners grew 15.7% Y-o-Y to 325 in Q1-12. The sluggishness in volumes is ascribed to the cautious approach by investors in light of continued regional disturbances, evident from new construction permit trends, which was down 4.1% Y-o-Y. GCC: An analysis of transaction data for Apr-12 published so far indicates increasing activity levels in Dubai and declining trends in KSA on Y-o-Y basis. However, on M-o-M basis, mixed trends were observed in Dubai, with deal volumes edging down and a rise in total transaction value. Furthermore, the number of transactions/ transaction value declined (M-o-M) in Riyadh, while Dammam exhibited an uptrend. IMF, in their Regional Economic Outlook now expects GDP growth in GCC countries to decelerate to 5.3% in 2012 after growing 8% in 2011, and forecasts non-oil GDP to increase 4.5% Y-o-Y in 2012. IMF's lower growth forecasts for GCC are driven by resurgence in oil output from Libya and capacity expansion in Iraq, alleviating supply concerns. Economies of Kuwait, KSA & Qatar are expected to grow higher than the average rate while Bahrain and UAE are expected to be laggards in terms of GDP growth.
Contents Market Commentary Charts to Note Activity Monitor: Dubai, Kuwait, Riyadh - KSA, Dammam KSA Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type "MRKZ" Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets
Thomas K. Mathew Senior Research Analyst +965 2224 8000 Extn: 2712 tmathew@markaz.com Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA Assistant Manager +965 2224 8548 rvenkateshwaran@markaz.com Bassam N. Al-Othman Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011 bothman@markaz.com
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz" P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828 markaz.com
Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Charts to note
Chart 1: Kuwait Consumer Price Index (CPI) and house rents 2011-12
154 152 150 148 146
144
142
140 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
CPI Housing Component
Source: Kuwait Central Statistical Office (CSO), Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis
Chart 2: Real Estate Transactions Market Comparison Apr-12
12 10 8 6 4 2
0 Apr-11 Apr-12 0.4
Vol - 95.2% Value - 113.9%
10.7
2.8
Vol - 62.6% Value - 27.8%
3.0 2.5 2.0
Vol - 50.3% Value - 41.4%
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.0
0.9
4.0 2.3
1.0
0.7
1.3
0.6
1.1
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Dubai
No. of transactions ('000s)
Riyadh
Dammam
Value of transactions - RHS
Source: Dubai Land Department, MOJ KSA, Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
USD Bn
2
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Chart 3: Qatar Change in residential rentals (furnished) 2008-12
- Correction from peak - Recovery from trough
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q3-08 Q3-10
- 23.1% - 0.0%
Rents (QR/month)
- 29.3% - 5.1%
- 29.5% - 2.4%
- 21.6% - 2.9%
Villa
Q4-08 Q4-10 Q1-09 Q1-11
3 BHK
Q2-09 Q2-11 Q3-09 Q3-11
2 BHK
Q4-09 Q4-11 Q1-10 Q1-12
1 BHK
Q2-10
Source: NAI Qatar reports, Markaz Analysis
Chart 4: Qatar Change in residential rentals (unfurnished) 2008-12
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q3-08 - Correction from peak - Recovery from trough
- 42.6% - 4.7%
Rents (QR/month)
- 32.2% - 0.0%
- 43.1% - 2.5%
- 34.9% - 6.3%
Villa Q4-08 Q1-09
3 BHK Q2-09 Q3-09
2 BHK Q4-09 Q1-10
1 BHK Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Source: NAI Qatar reports, Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
3
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Chart 5: Lebanon Property Sales Transactions Q1
2,500 2,115
2,000
1,500 1,057 1,000 689 500 469 473
1,808
1,953
USD Mn
1,006
574
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Directorate of Real Estate, Bank Audi, Markaz Analysis
Chart 6: GCC Real GDP growth 2010-13
Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook Update Apr-12, Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
4
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Exhibit 1: Rental trends at a glance Qatar:
Qatar Residential Rental Rates - Q1-12 (QAR/pm) Apartments Studio 1 BHK 2 BHK DTZ 6,060 7,511 Furnished NAI Qatar 5,028 6,061 Unfurnished 7,000 10,500 14,000 Max Asteco 2,500 3,000 4,000 Min
Source: DTZ, NAI, Asteco Qatar reports, Q1-12, Markaz Analysis
3 BHK 9,184 7,463 17,500 6,000
3 BHK 14,000
19,000 7,000
Villas 4 BHK 15,000 14,512 12,804 24,000 8,500
5 BHK 18,000
30,000 10,000
Pearl - Qatar Rental Rates - Q1-12 (QAR/pm) Apartments 1 BHK 2 BHK 3 BHK DTZ 11,000 14,000 18,000 Asteco 9,500 13,000 16,250
DTZ, Asteco Qatar reports, Q1-12, Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
5
Villa
Land
Total
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apartment
Transactions
10
20
30
40
50
60
80
70
Villa Transactions
Land Transactions
Activity Monitor
No. No. No. No. Value Value Value Value -9.0% -6.1% 4.1% 11.8% 28.8% 52.0% 36.1% 46.7% 111.8% 196.1% 136.4% 86.0% 52.6% 68.9% 46.7% 52.8%
5
No. of transactions
W-o-W Y-o-Y
Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Value transacted (AED Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
10
20
30
50
60
80
40
70
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
6
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
No. of Transactions
Apartment Transactions
100
300
400
500
200
600
-
No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date 2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
0
100
300
400
500
200
600
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
7
Total
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100
150
300
350
200
250
Private Residential
50
0
30
40
50
60
70
Investment
Commercial
10
20
0
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
Transactions
No. -8.9% -50.0% 84.4%
No.
No.
No.
Value -26.3%
Value
Value -71.1%
Value -53.8% 33.7%
W-o-W
8.8%
Investment Property transactions
5.9% -50.0% -16.7% 48.8% 38.5% 64.8% 70.5% 56.8%
Y-o-Y
No. of transactions
Private Residential Property transactions
Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012
0
50 60 70
0
30
40
10
20
100
160
180
120
140
20
40
60
80
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
8
Total
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100 500
200
300
350
450
150
250
400
Residential
Commercial
Transactions
Riyadh Real Estate Transactions
Riyadh Residential transactions
1,000
1,500
2,500
3,000
2,000
Riyadh Commercial transactions
50
0 0
No. -7.7% 1.5% -50.9% -31.0% No. No. Value -40.1% Value Value -9.5%
W-o-W
KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of Transactions No. of Transactions
-60.1%
Y-o-Y
-64.5%
-69.5%
-58.6%
-51.0%
-65.6%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
500
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
1,000
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1,500
9
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Total
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
Residential
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100
200
300
600
400
500
Commercial
0
120
160
180
100
140
Transactions
Dammam Real Estate Transactions
20
No. No. Value Value -18.2% -36.4% 15.5% 40.9%
40
60
80
0
No. 9.3% 11.9%
Value
W-o-W
Dammam Residential transactions
Dammam Commercial transactions
No. of Transactions
Y-o-Y
No. of Transactions Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
-36.5% 33.8%
-33.3% 22.4%
-37.4% 46.5%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
0
1,200
0
200
400
600
800
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,000
1,600
1,800
1,200
1,400
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
10
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
No. of Transactions
No. Value
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
0
Source: MOJ
Transactions W-o-W
8.8% 69.0% 45.5% 72.7%
Qatar Real Estate Transactions Y-o-Y
No. of transactions Value transacted (QAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
1,000 500
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
11
Value Transacted (QAR Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
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Stress Testing Kuwait Banks (May-11)
Kuwait Investment Sector (Sept-10) The New Regulations on Kuwait Investment Sector (Jun-10)
To obtain a print copy, kindly contact: Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz" Media and Communications Department Tel: +965 2224 8000 Ext. 1814 Fax: +965 2249 8740 Postal Address: P.O. Box 23444, Safat, 13095, State of Kuwait Email: research@markaz.com markaz.com/research
GCC Banks - Done with Provisions? (Jan-10)
Shelter in a Storm (Mar-09) Banking Sweet spots (Apr-08) Oil & Gas
GCC Petrochemicals (2012)* Diworsification: The GCC Oil Stranglehold (Jan-09) Monthly Regional Petroleum Projects Commentary Daily Oil & Gas Bulletin
*Paid Category. Only executive summary & table of contents available for free download
