May 13, 2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary
Real Estate Market Commentary
06-May-12 to 12-May-12
Dubai: Brokerage firm Harbor Real Estate indicated an uptrend in residential apartment rentals at Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) on a Q-o-Q basis in Q1-12. It outlined a more than 20% surge in rentals of two and three bedroom units. Another brokerage house Propsquare Real Estate noted a similar trend in apartment rentals at JBR. Earlier, Asteco had observed a 10% and 4.5% Q-o-Q increase in rentals of studios and three bedroom apartments, respectively, and highlighted stability in rental rates of one and two bedroom units in the locality. The increase in rentals at JBR is ascribed to its proximity to the beach, hotels, retails outlets and restaurants. On the other hand, Harbor Real Estate noted a downtrend in apartment rentals at Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT). Rentals of one and two bedroom units reportedly remained stable, while studios and three bedroom apartments witnessed a decline. This is in contrast with Propsquare Real Estate's view of a more than 10% Q-o-Q uptick in rentals across apartment types in JLT. Earlier Asteco reported moderate rental increases and highlighted that, rentals for studio and three bedrooms had edged up c.6-8% on a Q-o-Q basis, while those for one and two bedroom units remained stable. Propsquare ascribes the increase in rentals at JLT to its excellent connectivity through public transport, proximity to lakes and the large floor area of apartments here and expects rentals to edge up further due to the new feeder bus service. KSA: According to the Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI)'s latest monthly release, average inflation edged up a marginal 0.2% M-o-M in Apr-12 led by higher housing rentals and utility prices (up 0.8% M-o-M). On Y-o-Y basis, overall inflation was much higher at 5.3%, slightly lower than 5.4% in Mar-12. However, housing component surged 9.2% Y-o-Y, up from 8.9% a month earlier. The uptrend in prices is expected to continue due to housing shortage and expansionary fiscal policies. Egypt: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in its latest monthly reported a headline inflation of 1.2% M-o-M in Mar-12, slightly higher than the 1.1% M-o-M increase in housing rentals and utilities. However, on a Y-oY basis, the headline inflation of 9% was lesser than 10.2% surge in the housing component. An upsurge in housing inflation in Mar-12 (compared to 8.6% Y-o-Y in Feb-12) could be reflective of the tight housing market. Moody's latest Egypt report highlighted bleak economic growth prospects until 2013. It held a similar view on the banking system in the country, as the report highlighted a reduction in the banks' core liquid assets to 17% of the asset base as of Dec-11 from 23% a year ago. With a reduction in the asset position of the banks, overall liquidity in the system and liquidity available to the real estate sector are likely to be negatively impacted. GCC: Standard and Poor (S&P) expects GDP growth in GCC to decelerate to 5% Y-o-Y in 2012, largely in line with the IMF estimate of 5.3%. Similar to the IMF, S&P expects revival in oil production in Libya to exert downward pressure on oil output in GCC. Furthermore, S&P forecasted stable outlooks for Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar and KSA, while mentioning that, Oman and Bahrain have negative outlooks.
Contents Market Commentary Charts to Note Activity Monitor: Dubai, Kuwait, Riyadh - KSA, Dammam KSA Qatar Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type "MRKZ" Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets
Thomas K. Mathew Senior Research Analyst +965 2224 8000 Extn: 2712 tmathew@markaz.com Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA Assistant Manager +965 2224 8548 rvenkateshwaran@markaz.com Bassam N. Al-Othman Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011 bothman@markaz.com
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz" P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828 markaz.com
Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Charts to note
Chart 1: Kuwait trends in real estate finance 2011-12
6,800 6,750 25% 26%
KWD Mn
6,700
6,650 6,600 23% 24%
6,550
6,500 22%
Nov-11
May-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Feb-12
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Real Estate Credit
Aug-11
As a % of total private credit (RHS)
Source: Central Bank of Kuwait, Monthly Bulletin Mar-12, Markaz Analysis
Chart 2: KSA Consumer Price Index (CPI) and house rents 2011-12
190 180
170 160 150 140
130 120
110 100
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
CPI
Housing Component
Source: KSA Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI), Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012)
Dec-11
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
Mar-12
Jun-11
2
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Chart 3: Qatar trends in real estate finance 2010-12
90 40% 35%
80
70
60
QAR Bn
50
30%
25% 20%
40
30 20 10 0
15%
10%
May-10
May-11
Nov-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jul-11
Real Estate Credit
As a % of total private credit (RHS)
Source: Qatar Central Bank, Quarterly Monetary Bulletin Mar-12, Markaz Analysis
Chart 4: Egypt Consumer Price Index (CPI) and house rents 2011-12
130 120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
CPI Housing Component
Source: Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
Mar-12
Mar-10
3
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Exhibit 1: Rental trends at a glance JBR and JLT Dubai:
Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) Apartment Rental Rates (AED '000 /pa) Studio 1BHK 2BHK Q1-12 75-90 100-120 Harbor Real Estate Q4-11 65-80 80-110 Q1-12 70-80 100-120 Propsquare Real Estate Q4-11 60-70 80-90 Q1-12 55 70 90 Asteco Q4-11 50 70 90
Source: News Release, Asteco Dubai reports, Markaz Analysis
3BHK 130-150 105-150 135-145 110-120 115 110
Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) Apartment Rental Rates (AED '000 /pa) Studio 1BHK 2BHK Q1-12 43 60 83 Harbor Real Estate Q4-11 45 60 83 Q1-12 45-60 70-80 Propsquare Real Estate Q4-11 40-45 60-70 Q1-12 35 45 65 Asteco Q4-11 33 45 65
Source: News Release, Asteco Dubai reports, Markaz Analysis
3BHK 120 130 90-110 80-100 90 85
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
4
Villa
Land
Total
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apartment
Transactions
10
20
30
40
50
60
80
70
Villa Transactions
Land Transactions
Activity Monitor
No. No. No. No. Value Value Value Value -6.4% -7.2% -34.5% -50.0% -13.2% -17.5% 36.3% 27.3% 107.6% 338.2% 250.0% 131.5% 119.5% -38.3% -67.8% 50.0%
5
No. of transactions
W-o-W Y-o-Y
Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Value transacted (AED Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
10
20
30
50
60
80
40
70
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
5
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
No. of Transactions
Apartment Transactions
100
300
400
500
200
600
-
No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date 2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
0
100
300
400
500
200
600
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
6
Total
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100
150
300
350
200
250
Private Residential
50
0
30
40
50
60
70
Investment
Commercial
10
20
0
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
Transactions
No. -8.9% -50.0% 84.4%
No.
No.
No.
Value -26.3%
Value
Value -71.1%
Value -53.8% 33.7%
W-o-W
8.8%
Investment Property transactions
5.9% -50.0% -16.7% 48.8% 38.5% 64.8% 70.5% 56.8%
Y-o-Y
No. of transactions
Private Residential Property transactions
Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012
0
40 50 60 70
0
30
10
20
100
160
180
120
140
20
40
60
80
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
7
Total
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100 500
200
300
350
450
150
250
400
Residential
Commercial
Transactions
Riyadh Real Estate Transactions
Riyadh Residential transactions
1,000
1,500
2,500
3,000
2,000
Riyadh Commercial transactions
50
0 0
No. 105.6% -17.4% 32.1% -21.7% No. Value Value Value -12.3%
No. -16.4%
W-o-W
KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of Transactions No. of Transactions Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
-51.6%
Y-o-Y
-65.3%
-48.3%
-65.4%
-55.6%
-65.3%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
500
1,000
1,500
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
8
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Total
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
Residential
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100
200
300
600
400
500
Commercial
0
120
160
180
100
140
Transactions
Dammam Real Estate Transactions
20
No. Value Value -34.9% -54.1% 13.8%
40
60
80
0
No. -21.0%
No. -17.0% 24.6%
Value
W-o-W
Dammam Residential transactions
Dammam Commercial transactions
No. of Transactions
Y-o-Y
No. of Transactions Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
-0.5%
-34.5%
-49.9%
-59.2%
-44.3%
-47.6%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
0
800 1,200
0
200
400
600
200
400
600
800
1,000
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
1,000
1,600
1,800
1,200
1,400
9
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
No. of Transactions
No. Value
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
0
Source: MOJ
Transactions W-o-W
72.7% 69.0% 8.8% 45.5%
Y-o-Y
Qatar Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions Value transacted (QAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
1,000 500
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
10
Value Transacted (QAR Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
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