Jun 02, 2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary
Real Estate Market Commentary
27-May-12 to 02-Jun-12
Kuwait: Central Statistical Office (CSO), in its latest monthly release, outlined a 0.6% M-o-M decline in overall prices in Apr-12, while the housing component remained unchanged. From a year ago, overall prices either increased or remained stable on M-o-M basis till Mar-12, but a deflation in CPI in Apr-12 denotes a change in trend, likely due to a strengthening USD. Housing component remained unchanged (M-o-M %) for most of the months since a year ago. On a Y-o-Y basis, overall prices increased 3.3%, and house rentals and utility prices grew 1.5%. Dubai: According to the Dubai Statistics Center (DSC)'s latest release, GDP grew 3.4% Y-o-Y in 2011 to AED306.2 Bn. This was led by a 5.8% Y-o-Y increase in trade (which contributes 30.7% to GDP). Exports expanded 44.3% Y-o-Y to AED98.1 Bn, while imports grew 21.4% Y-oY. The overall inflation was 0.5% Y-o-Y in 2011, while the housing component dropped 3.3%. UAE: The Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) expects inflation to increase during the second half of 2012, low base effects and rise in wages of UAE nationals in late 2011 and early 2012. This may be partially offset by lower international food prices and a stronger USD, both of which would make imports cheaper. The DCCI also expects housing costs to have bottomed out during the first H1-2012 and subscribed to IMF's overall inflation forecast of 2.5% Y-o-Y in 2012. On the other hand, as per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)'s latest monthly release, the average inflation until Apr-12 stood at 0.7% Y-o-Y, much lower than the IMF's 2012 full year forecast . Overall prices rose 0.1% M-o-M in Apr-12; while the housing component remained unchanged (this is in line with DCCI's observation of housing and rental costs bottoming out). On Y-o-Y basis, the overall inflation was 0.8% during Apr-12, whereas housing component dropped 3.4%. Bahrain: According to CBRE's Q1-12 market view, rentals for apartments and villas remained stable during the quarter on Q-o-Q basis, but declined Y-o-Y. The trend is in line with Cluttons' observation of a flat Q-o-Q trend, but differs on a Y-o-Y basis as Cluttons outlined rental increases at some locations. CBRE also noted stability in residential sales prices, in contrast with the downtrend in the residential sales market observed by Cluttons earlier. However, CBRE observed that some developers sold housing units at cost price or realizing losses, in line with the observation made by Cluttons. On the office front, CBRE reported a flat Q-o-Q rental trends, while Cluttons had outlined a downtrend earlier. CBRE expects rentals to decline, particularly at locations such as Diplomatic Area and Seef District, due to upcoming supply. Cluttons shared a similar outlook with downward pressure on office rentals likely to persist until end 2012. Lebanon: It was reported that builders are shifting focus to the construction of small apartments (120150 Sqm) due to high demand from the younger population. Demand for high-end residential space was reported to be retreating amid deterioration in the political environment in the Middle East that dented investor confidence. Figures provided by Bank Audi indicated a 3.4% Y-o-Y decline in real estate transactions to 16,784 in Q1-12 from 17,373; as the decline is largely ascribed to the impact of the regional turmoil on real estate.
Contents Market Commentary Charts to Note Activity Monitor: Dubai, Kuwait, Riyadh - KSA, Dammam KSA Qatar Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type "MRKZ" Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets
Thomas K. Mathew Senior Research Analyst +965 2224 8000 Extn: 2712 tmathew@markaz.com Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA Manager +965 2224 8548 rvenkateshwaran@markaz.com Bassam N. Al-Othman Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011 bothman@markaz.com
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz" P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828 markaz.com
Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Charts to note
Chart 1: Kuwait Consumer Price Index (CPI) and house rents 2011-12
154
152
150
148
146
144
142
140 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
CPI
Source: Kuwait Central Statistical Office (C
Housing Component
SO), Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012)
Chart 2: UAE Consumer Price Index (CPI) and house rents 2011-12
118
116
114 112 110
108
106 104 102
100 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
CPI Housing Component
Source: National Bureau of Statistics UAE, Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
2
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Chart 3: UAE annual CPI 2008-12
Source: National Bureau of Statistics UAE, Markaz Analysis; *- actual figure till Apr-12
Exhibit 1: Rental trends discussed at a glance
Bahrain Rentals (Residential- BHD/pm, Office- BHD/Sqm/pm) Residential (Juffair -2BR) Office# CBRE 600 4.5-8.0 Cluttons 700 4.5-8.5
Source: CBRE, Cluttons Q1-12 reports #- CBRE data for Class A & B offices, Cluttons data for fitted office space
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
3
Villa
Land
Total
No. of Transactions No. of Transactions
15
20
25
30
Apartment
Transactions
Villa Transactions
Land Transactions
Activity Monitor
10
35
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
No. No. No. No. Value Value Value Value
5
9.1% 133.8% 5.9% 72.2% 32.9% 87.4% 19.3% 55.8% 19.6% 10.5% 56.2% 30.9% 109.5% 60.0% 13.8% 120.5%
W-o-W Y-o-Y
Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Value transacted (AED Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
4
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
No. of Transactions
Apartment Transactions
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
No. of transactions Value transacted (AED Mn)
Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date 2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W45-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Value Transacted (AED Mn)
5
Total
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
100
150
200
250
300
350
Private Residential
50
0
Investment
Commercial
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
10
20
40
50
60
70
30
0
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
Transactions
No. 0.0% 190.0% -30.0% -22.5%
No.
No.
No.
Value -23.6%
Value
Value
Value -39.6% -39.7%
W-o-W
-28.2%
Investment Property transactions Y-o-Y
-6.0% 0.0% -12.1% 226.4% 20.3% 14.3% 31.9% 20.3%
No. of transactions
Private Residential Property transactions
Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
Value transacted (KWD Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W35-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012
0 50 60 70
0
140
160
180
100
120
10
20
40
30
20
40
60
80
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
Value Transacted (KWD Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
6
Total
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
200
250
300
350
400
450
100
500 0
No. No. No. Value Value Value
150
50
-34.5% -28.1% -74.7% -36.0% 42.9% -42.5%
1,500
2,000
Residential
Riyadh Real Estate Transactions
Commercial
Transactions
Riyadh Residential transactions
1,000
2,500
3,000
Riyadh Commercial transactions
0
W-o-W
KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions
-39.3%
Y-o-Y
-8.7%
-74.7%
-64.2%
-64.6%
-76.6%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012 W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
500
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
7
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Source: MOJ
Source: MOJ
No. of Transactions No. of Transactions
300
400
500
600
100
200
0
120
140
160
100
180
40
-21.7% -23.2% -12.7% -26.7%
60
80
Dammam Real Estate Transactions
Transactions No. Residential Value No. Commercial Value No. Total Value
20
0
W-o-W
-32.8% -22.2%
Dammam Residential transactions
Dammam Commercial transactions
No. of Transactions
No. of Transactions Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Y-o-Y
-47.1%
-57.7%
-39.6%
-55.6%
-56.0%
-58.2%
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W06-2011 W07-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W21-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W26-2011 W27-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W30-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W37-2011 W38-2011 W39-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W50-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W14-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012 W21-2012 W22-2012
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
0 800
0
200
400
600
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
8
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
Value Transacted (SAR Mn)
No. of Transactions
No. Value
200
250
300
350
400
100
150
50
0
Source: MOJ
Transactions W-o-W
115.19% 52.37% 98.68% 52.45%
Y-o-Y
Qatar Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)
No. of transactions Value transacted (QAR Mn)
W01-2011 W02-2011 W03-2011 W04-2011 W05-2011 W08-2011 W09-2011 W10-2011 W11-2011 W12-2011 W13-2011 W14-2011 W15-2011 W16-2011 W17-2011 W18-2011 W19-2011 W20-2011 W22-2011 W23-2011 W24-2011 W25-2011 W28-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W32-2011 W33-2011 W34-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W41-2011 W42-2011 W43-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W48-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W52-2011 W01-2012 W02-2012 W03-2012 W04-2012 W05-2012 W06-2012 W07-2012 W08-2012 W09-2012 W10-2012 W11-2012 W12-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W16-2012 W17-2012 W18-2012 W19-2012 W20-2012
0
Kuwait Financial Centre "Markaz"
500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1,000
1,500
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
9
Value Transacted (QAR Mn)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
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