Jun 08, 2012
Market Update
A Monthly Performance Report May 2012
Africa (0.8%) positive outlier in May 2012
GPR 250 Inde x (-4.6%) turns nega tive i n May 2012 In May 2012, the GPR 250 Index recorded a 4.6% loss in local currency terms with only Africa (0.8%) posting a gain at continental level. At national level, Germany (8.6%) was top performer whereas Poland (Globe Trade Centre SA; -19.8%) came out worst. Le hman in full c ontrol o f Archstone Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. exercised its right of first offer to purchase the remaining 26.5% interest in Archstone for USD 1.58bn from Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc. Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc. last year agreed to sell about half of their stakes in Archstone, or 26.5%, to Equity Residential for USD 1.3bn. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., however, exercised its first refusal over the stake, and subsequently exercised another right to buy the remaining 26.5% stake in Archstone. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. will pay the banks USD 1.58bn of which USD 80m is payable by the banks to Equity Residential as a break-up fee. An additional termination fee of USD 70m will be paid by Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. to Equity Residential. Acti via Prope rties In c. prices IPO at JPY 460,0 00 p/s Activia Properties Inc., a unit of Tokyu Land Corp., plans to raise as much as JPY 93.9bn by selling shares in a REIT in June 2012, becoming the second Japanese REIT to go public this year. Activia Properties Inc. plans to sell 204,100 shares in Japan and abroad for JPY 460,000 per share (at the bottom of the JPY 460,000-500,000 per share price range). Deuts che Wohne n AG to buy BauBeCon Group Deutsche Wohnen AG entered into an agreement with Barclays Bank PLC regarding the acquisition of companies of the BauBeCon Group, which will comprise approximately 23,500 residential units. As a result, Deutsche Wohnen AG will enlarge its existing residential portfolio from the currently approximately 50,000 residential units to a total of approximately 73,500 residential units through the acquisition, thus achieving the mid-term targeted size of 75,000 units.
An al yst s Jeroen Vreeker j.vreeker@gpr.nl Floris van Dorp f.van.dorp@gpr.nl Global Property Research Beethovenstraat 300 P.O. Box 75666 1070 AR Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 3488 451/452 Fax: +31 20 3488 962 Email: info@gpr.nl www.globalpropertyresearch.com
GLOBAL - DATA
May 2012
Graph 1: Continental performance of GPR 250 Property Shares Index (local returns)
120 Europe Americas Asia 110 100 90 80 70 May 20%
South Africa Bonds Switzerland Canada Philippines Sweden Singapore UK Japan US Finland Germany Italy Austria Turkey Hong Kong
May
Graph 2: Return and volatility of the major countries in the GPR 250 Property Shares Index based on 5 year figures (local currency)
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Return (%)
10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
Belgium
France Equitie s Netherla nds Australia
Poland
0% 10% Volatility (%)
20%
30%
40%
50%
-40% 60%
Graph 3: Rolling 36-month correlation on continental level of the GPR 250 Property Shares Index (local currency)
Europe - America Europe - Asia America - Asia
1.0 0.8 0.6
0.4 0.2 0.0 May-12
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
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GLOBAL - DATA
May 2012
Graph 4: Performance of property shares to other asset classes (local returns)
Property Shares (GPR 250) Equities (MSCI) Bonds (JP Morgan)
120 110 100 90 80 70 May
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Property Shares - Equities
Graph 5: Rolling 36-months correlation between different asset classes (local returns)
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
Property Shares - Bonds Equities - Bonds
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
-0.8 May-12
Table 1: Performance of property shares and other assets
TABLE 1. Local Total Returns Property Shares and Other Assets 1 month GPR 250 Global GPR 250 Africa GPR 250 Americas GPR 250 Asia GPR 250 Europe GPR 250 Oceania Global Bonds (JP Morgan) Global Equities (MSCI) -4.6% 0.8% -3.9% -9.3% -1.3% -1.2% 1.5% -6.7% 6 months 11.2% 16.0% 13.9% 9.2% 5.1% 8.8% 4.3% 3.0% y-t-d 10.0% 14.1% 9.2% 12.8% 7.0% 11.8% 2.6% 2.4% 1 year -1.3% 21.6% 5.4% -10.3% -14.4% 5.9% 7.6% -7.2% 3 year 17.8% 21.8% 30.0% 3.2% 13.7% 12.5% 5.2% 9.0% 5 year volatility -6.1% 12.8% -0.1% -10.6% -10.7% -13.1% 5.4% -4.2% 0.16 0.09 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.03 0.15
Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized
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EUROPE - NEWS
May 2012
Deutsche Wohnen AG T o Buy BauBeCon Group
Best performing local country indices were Germany (8.6%) and Switzerland (1.2%), the only two countries ending the month in positive territory
The European listed property sector posted a loss of 1.3% in May 2012, the second monthly decline so far in 2012. Best performing local country indices were Germany (8.6%) and Switzerland (1.2%), the only two countries ending the month in positive territory. The other local country indices returned losses that ranged from -0.1% for France to -19.8% for Poland (Globe Trade Centre SA). Deutsche Wohnen AG entered into an agreement with Barclays Bank PLC regarding the acquisition of companies of the BauBeCon Group, which will comprise approximately 23,500 residential units. As a result, Deutsche Wohnen AG will enlarge its existing residential portfolio from the currently approximately 50,000 residential units to a total of approximately 73,500 residential units through the acquisition, thus achieving the mid-term targeted size of 75,000 units. The transaction is based on an enterprise value of EUR 1.235bn for 100% of the BauBeCon Group companies to be acquired. Deutsche Wohnen AG will finance the acquisition through a combination of equity and debt, whereby an loan-to-value ratio of less than 60% shall be maintained in the midterm post completion of the acquisition. Subject to customary conditions precedent, the closing of the acquisition of the BauBeCon Group companies is expected to be completed in the coming months. Icade said that SMA Vie BTP and l'Association de defense des actionnaires minoritaires (ADAM) had lodged an appeal with the Court of Appeal of Paris for the cancellation of the conformity decision of the French stock market authority, AMF, relating to Icade's exchange offer for Silic. This move may hamper the planned merger between the two property firms, with the two minority shareholders not expecting the court process to be completed before September 2012 owing to to judiciary holidays. AMF said that the tender offer period, which was due to close on 1 June 2012, is now being extended until further notice after the shareholders complained that the terms of the offer did not provide equal treatment for all stakeholders. Icade said that the AMF will announce at a later stage how the appeals will impact the timetable of the offer. Icade said that the objectives of the combination remain unchanged..
Globe Trade Centre SA plans to sell PLN 445m of new class I shares as the property developer seeks cash to pay back debt
Globe Trade Centre SA plans to sell PLN 445m of new class I shares as the property developer seeks cash to pay back debt. The company will sell 100 million class I shares priced at PLN 4.45 each. The company will use the proceeds from the share sale "mainly" to reduce liabilities. IGD SIIQ S.p.A. started to sell 29.8272 million new shares in a 1 per 10 rights issue priced at EUR 0.64 per share with the newly issued shares having started trading on 4 June 2012. The rights issue was not fully underwritten. Global Property Research 4
EUROPE DATA
May 2012
20%
Graph 6: Top and bottom performing European companies (local returns)
10%
10% 0% 0%
-10%
Graph 7: Top and bottom performing European countries (local returns)
-10%
-20%
United Kingdom Belgium
5 year -10.7% -23.2% -3.6% -13.0% -4.0% -17.8% N/A -24.1% -8.7% N/A -31.9% -1.6% 8.5% -2.4% -14.0% -6.1% 7.6%
Poland Italy Austria Turkey Finland
NSI NV Globe Trade Centre Beni Stabili S.p.A. SIIQ Immofinanz Group Is REIT
Table 2: Long and short-term returns of European countries (local returns)
TABLE 2. Local Total Returns of European Countries (GPR 250) 1 month Europe Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Israel Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom MSCI Europe JP Morgan Germany -1.3% -11.0% -0.3% -5.8% -0.1% 8.6% -4.3% -17.6% -4.5% -4.5% -19.8% -3.0% 1.2% -8.6% -1.2% -6.3% 3.3% 6 months 5.1% -1.4% -2.1% -1.0% 6.5% 19.3% -1.7% 10.9% 3.1% 6.6% -40.8% 2.6% 12.1% 4.9% 3.8% -0.4% 8.1% y-t-d 7.0% -3.4% -2.4% -0.1% 5.6% 24.2% 7.4% -0.2% 2.7% 13.0% -37.8% 1.5% 11.7% 12.7% 10.1% -1.4% 4.7% 1 year -14.4% -27.9% -12.1% -26.2% -14.6% 0.7% -12.5% -54.0% -27.2% -25.8% -71.1% -13.2% 9.5% -12.1% -13.0% -13.9% 15.1% 3 year 13.7% 16.3% 3.7% 15.8% 15.0% 11.9% N/A -14.3% 5.9% 4.9% -32.5% 19.1% 20.8% 13.1% 14.2% 5.9% 8.1% volatility 0.20 0.38 0.11 0.32 0.22 0.24 N/A 0.37 0.22 0.43 0.37 0.25 0.10 0.34 0.22 0.15 0.05
Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized
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Great Portland Estates Plc TAG Immobilien AG GAGFAH Deutsche EuroShop Deutsche Wohnen
France Switzerland Germany
-30%
-20%
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AMERICAS - NEWS
May 2012
Lehman In Full Control Of Archstone
The GPR 250 Americas Index recorded a 3.9% loss in May 2012, with the United States property stocks losing 4.4% on aggregate. Local country indices
Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. exercised its right of first offer to purchase the remaining 26.5% interest in Archstone for USD 1.58bn from Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc.
for Brazil (-2.8%) and Canada (-0.3%) ended the month in negative territory. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. exercised its right of first offer to purchase the remaining 26.5% interest in Archstone for USD 1.58bn from Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc. To recall, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. acquired Archstone with Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc. in 2007 in a USD 22bn deal. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. filed for bankruptcy in 2008 and emerged from it earlier this year. Barclays Plc and Bank of America, Inc. last year agreed to sell about half of their stakes in Archstone, or 26.5%, to Equity Residential for USD 1.3bn. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., however, exercised its first refusal over the stake, and subsequently exercised another right to buy the remaining 26.5% stake in Archstone. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. will pay the banks USD 1.58bn of which USD 80m is payable by the banks to Equity Residential as a break-up fee. An additional termination fee of USD 70m will be paid by
Healthcare Trust of America Inc. is to become the latest nontraded REIT to seek access to the public markets
Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. to Equity Residential. Healthcare Trust of America Inc. is to become the latest non-traded REIT to seek access to the public markets. The company said it would pursue a listing on the New York Stock Exchange and expects to list on or about 6 June 2012. The company is following in the footsteps of American Realty Capital Trust Inc., another non-traded REIT, which listed earlier this year, by employing a Dutch auction tender offer alongside the listing. Healthcare Trust of America Inc.'s tender offer is for up to USD 150.0m of its shares of class A common stock. The company will select the lowest price, between USD 10.10 per share and USD 10.50 per share, that will allow the company to buy up to USD 150.0m of its shares. The tender offer will be funded with cash on hand and funds available under its unsecured revolving credit and term loan facility. The company plans to list class A common stock, which will be issued to all shareholders upon conversion into class A, class B-1, class B-2 and class B-3 shares in connection with listing on a national securities exchange. Gazit-Globe, Inc. has submitted, together with First Capital Realty, a nonbinding preliminary proposal to Gazit America with respect to the acquisition by Gazit-Globe, Inc. of all of the Gazit America shares not already beneficially owned by Gazit-Globe, Inc. (approximately 26.9%) at CAD 7.07 for each Gazit America share, payable in cash and shares of First Capital Realty. The consideration will include a cash portion of CAD 2.90 and a 0.2222 First Capital Realty share (for each share of Gazit America). Global Property Research 6
AMERICAS DATA
May 2012
Graph 8: Top and bottom performing American companies (local returns)
10%
10%
0% 0% -10%
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT Parkway Properties Inc. Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliarios
Forest City Enterprises-Cl A Entertainment Properties Trust Sabra Health Care REIT Howard Hughes Corporation ProLogis Inc
Healthcare Realty Trust Inc.
American countries (local returns)
Table 3: Long and short-term returns of American countries (local returns)
TABLE 3. Local Total Returns American Countries (GPR 250) 1 month Americas Brazil Canada United States MSCI North America JP Morgan United States -3.9% -2.8% -0.3% -4.4% -6.2% 1.8% 6 months 13.9% 25.4% 12.3% 13.8% 5.2% 3.1% y-t-d 9.2% 23.2% 10.0% 8.8% 4.5% 2.0% 1 year 5.4% 24.8% 13.8% 4.0% -2.0% 9.3% 3 year 30.0% 38.4% 30.3% 29.8% 14.0% 6.2% 5 year -0.1% N/A 6.5% -0.8% -0.9% 7.2% volatility 0.19 0.28 0.10 0.21 0.16 0.04
Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized
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United States Brazil Canada
Graph 9: Top and bottom performing
-20%
-10%
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AFRICA, ASIA & OCEANIA - NEWS
May 2012
Centro Retail Australia Settle s For AUD 200m
In May 2012, Africa was the only continent posting a gain (0.8%). Total return performances for Asia (-9.3%) and Oceania (-1.2%) turned out negative. All Asian local country indices were in decline, with losses ranging from -2.9% for Philippines (SM Prime Holdings) to -11.2% for Hong Kong.
Activia Properties Inc., a unit of Tokyu Land Corp., plans to raise as much as JPY 93.9bn by selling shares in a REIT in June 2012, becoming the second Japanese REIT to go public this year
Activia Properties Inc., a unit of Tokyu Land Corp., plans to raise as much as JPY 93.9bn by selling shares in a REIT in June 2012, becoming the second Japanese REIT to go public this year. Activia Properties Inc. plans to sell 204,100 shares in Japan and abroad for JPY 460,000 per share (at the bottom of the JPY 460,000-500,000 per share price range). The REIT will include commercial facilities and office buildings in Tokyo. A total of JPY 34.5bn may be sold to overseas investors, while additional JPY 4.7bn will be offered to meet demand. The shares are expected to start trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on 13 June 2012. The IPO comes after the trading debut of Kenedix Residential Investment Corp. on 26 April 2012, when it was the first Japanese REIT to sell shares in more than four years. Ascendas Hospitality Trust has decided not to launch its IPO in Singapore in view of the challenging market conditions, but will remain flexible about the timing of the deal. The company was aiming to raise between SGD 600m and SGD 700m, and had been expected to kick off a formal institutional roadshow in late May 2012. Ascendas Hospitality Trust owns hotels in Australia and several Asian markets, including China and Japan.
The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will permit the creation of REITs starting in June 2012
The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will permit the creation of REITs starting in June 2012. A number of existing property funds are expected to convert to REITs, thanks to more flexible investment rules than existing property fund structures. The SEC is negotiating with the Finance Ministry to ease tax and fee charges for property funds wishing to convert to a REIT structure. Currently there are 39 property funds registered in the market with assets as of December 2011 of THB 102bn. Centro Retail Australia, formed from a mall manager's reorganization, and PricewaterhouseCoopers agreed in principle to a settlement of AUD 200m with Centro Properties Group shareholders who claimed they were misled over its debts. The settlement covers more than 1,000 individual and group shareholders, including some of the country's largest financial institutions. The settlement also covers about 5,000 individuals and retirees. Dexus Property Group is planning a gradual disposal of its United States and European properties, offloading the remaining AUD 530m of United States industrial properties within five years and the AUD 100m European industrial properties within 18 months. Global Property Research 8
AFRICA, ASIA & OCEANIA DATA
May 2012
Graph 10: Top and bottom performing Asian and Oceanian companies (local returns)
10%
10%
0%
0%
Graph 11: Top and bottom performing Asian and Oceanian countries (local returns)
-10%
-10%
Table 4: Long and short-term performance of Asian and Oceania countries (local returns)
TABLE 4. Local Total Returns of Asian and Oceania Countries (GPR 250) 1 month Africa Asia Oceania Australia China Hong Kong Japan Philippines Singapore South Africa MSCI Pacific JP Morgan Japan JP Morgan Australia 0.8% -9.3% -1.2% -1.2% -3.4% -11.2% -9.5% -2.9% -4.3% 0.8% -9.3% 0.6% 4.1% 6 months 16.0% 9.2% 8.8% 8.8% 6.3% 13.0% 6.9% 28.1% 10.4% 16.0% 1.0% 2.1% 6.8% y-t-d 14.1% 12.8% 11.8% 11.8% 4.2% 10.7% 12.9% 21.9% 17.8% 14.1% 1.2% 1.4% 5.9% 1 year 21.6% -10.3% 5.9% 5.9% -23.1% -15.8% -8.6% 31.6% -5.4% 21.3% -12.6% 3.5% 16.9% 3 year 21.8% 3.2% 12.5% 12.6% -5.8% 10.7% -0.9% 21.5% 6.8% 21.8% -1.5% 2.8% 8.8% 5 year 12.8% -10.6% -13.1% -13.1% N/A 6.1% -17.6% 4.7% -7.9% 12.8% -11.3% 2.7% 8.8% volatility 0.09 0.20 0.15 0.15 N/A 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.18 0.09 0.15 0.02 0.05
Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized
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Capital Property Fund Centro Retail Australia Stockland Redefine Properties Limited Vukile Property Fund
Sino Land Co. Heiwa Real Estate Co. Tokyo Tatemono Co. Ltd. Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd. Hang Lung Properties
Australia South Africa
Hong Kong Japan Singapore China Philippines
-20%
-20%
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GPR 250 REIT DATA
May 2012
Graph 12: Rolling 36-months correlation between different asset classes (local returns)
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 REITs - Property Shares REITs - Equities May-07 REITs - Bonds May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 May-12
Table 5: Long and short-term returns of of REITs
TABLE 5. Local Total Returns of REITs (GPR 250 REIT) 1 month Global Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Australia Belgium Canada China France Hong Kong Italy Japan Netherlands Singapore South Africa Turkey United Kingdom United States -3.3% 0.9% -3.9% -4.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -0.3% 0.1% -3.4% -0.1% -7.7% -17.6% -4.3% -4.5% -1.2% 0.9% -8.6% -1.1% -4.3% 6 months 11.6% 14.7% 13.6% 11.0% 4.5% 8.8% 8.8% -2.1% 11.9% 6.3% 6.5% 8.2% 10.9% 11.4% 3.1% 12.7% 14.7% 4.9% 3.7% 13.7% y-t-d 9.3% 12.4% 8.8% 12.1% 7.2% 11.8% 11.8% -2.4% 10.1% 4.2% 5.6% 4.7% -0.2% 12.9% 2.7% 16.8% 12.4% 12.7% 10.6% 8.7% 1 year 1.2% 23.0% 5.3% -4.6% -15.8% 5.9% 5.9% -12.1% 17.2% -23.4% -14.6% 12.3% -54.0% -8.4% -27.2% -1.2% 23.0% -12.1% -13.3% 4.2% 3 year 22.4% 18.8% 29.9% 11.8% 13.0% 12.5% 12.6% 3.7% 31.7% N/A 15.0% 10.1% N/A 6.4% 4.7% 20.1% 18.8% -5.0% 14.6% 29.7% 5 year -4.3% 9.6% 0.1% -9.4% -8.6% -13.1% -13.1% -3.6% 7.5% N/A 13.1% -14.0% N/A -14.0% -7.8% -2.4% 9.6% -4.7% -12.8% -0.4% volatility 0.16 0.11 0.19 0.14 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.11 0.10 N/A 0.22 0.25 N/A 0.18 0.22 0.18 0.11 0.48 0.22 0.20
Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized
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GPR 15 REAL TIME INDEX
May 2012
GPR 15 Index serves as a representative benchmark for the European market
As of 30 June 2000, Global Property Research has launched the GPR 15 Index. The index tracks the performances of the 15 most liquid European property companies taking into account the country weight of the GPR 250 Europe Index. It covers nearly 60% of the European market in terms of market capitalization. The number of stocks per company is fixed, so it is easy for investors to hedge the portfolio. The correlation between the GPR 15 Index and the GPR 250 Europe Index is about 0.99 over the past three years and 0.98 since inception.
Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Austria Belgium France France France France Germany Netherlands Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom Company Immofinanz AG Cofinimmo SA Fonciere des Regions Gecina Klepierre Unibail-Rodamco SE GAGFAH Corio NV Castellum AB Swiss Prime Site British Land Company Plc Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC Hammerson Plc Land Securities Plc Segro Plc Weight 4.75% 2.85% 3.05% 2.91% 5.22% 23.85% 1.16% 4.77% 3.32% 7.11% 10.79% 4.34% 7.26% 14.66% 3.97%
350 300 GPR 250 Europe GPR 15 Index 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10
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INDEX NEWS
May 2012
Global Property Research has observed the following changes in the GPR 250
Global Property Research will adjust the constituents of the GPR 250 Index and the GPR 250 REIT Index on a quarterly basis. The table below summarizes the inclusions and exclusions of the GPR 250 Index and the GPR 250 REIT Index (indicated with an asterisk), which will become effective as of 18 June 2012.
Inclusions
Canada Germany Japan Singapore United States United States Crombie REIT * GSW Immobilien AG Mapletree Commercial Trust * RLJ Lodging Trust * STAG Industrial Inc. *
Exclusions
Japan Japan Fukuoka REIT * MID REIT * Resilient Property Income Fund
Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Inv. Corp. * South Africa
United Kingdom Songbird Estates Plc
Global Property Research has observed the following changes in the GPR General
Global Property Research will adjust the constituents of the GPR General Index on a monthly basis. The table below summarizes the inclusions and exclusions of the GPR General Index and the GPR General Quoted Index, which have become effective as of 1 June 2012. Open-ended funds, which are indicated with an asterisk, are included in or excluded from the GPR General Quoted Index.
Inclusions
South Africa Thailand Turkey Arrowhead Properties Ltd - Cl. B Thai Retail Investment Fund Akfen REIT
Exclusions
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