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MarketView 2012: The Year of Government Deleveraging March 2012

Apr 06, 2012
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MARKETVIEW
2012: THE YEAR OF GOVERNMENT DELEVERAGING
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

MARCH 2012

OUR POSITION
Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) believes 2012 will be a reverse image of 2011. The global economy and real estate markets started out healthy in 2011 and slowed during the second half of the year under pressure from natural disasters and rising uncertainty about the resolution of sovereign debt issues in Europe and the U.S. We expect the opposite pattern of performance this year. The global economy is anticipated to start off slowly, as debt resolution issues remain a concern, and strengthen during the second half as underlying economic fundamentals come to the fore. For real estate markets we anticipate a sluggish beginning to the year followed by improvement during the latter half of 2012.
The main economic and market drivers for the year will be continuing strength in Asia driven by local demand growth; steady growth in the Americas with the U.S. election creating uncertainty but also making it unlikely that there will be a further deceleration; and weakness in Europe as sovereign debt issues continue to roil the continent. Overall, we are moderately optimistic. We expect Governments to arrive at solutions to their debt issues during the course of the year without a major default. This resolution will take a weight off the economy and reduce investor concerns. As this process unfolds, financial markets are likely to improve, confidence is expected to rise and economic growth will accelerate. There is a possibility that the resolution of debt issues in Europe and the U.S. will prove more difficult and lead to prolonged uncertainty and sustained weak economic performance, however, we believe that even in this situation, the underlying drivers of growth are firmly in place and the global economy will continue to expand under all but the most dire of environments.

Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. 1290 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY 10019-6178 www.cushmanwakefield.com

MARCH 2012

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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
The uncertainty that characterized the global economy in the second half of 2011 is expected to persist in the first half of 2012 as Governments in much of the developed world engage in a process of deleveraging following the spending surge of the late 2000s. This deleveraging has political, economic and financial consequences which are currently unknown. How Governments in the West will reduce their fiscal deficits, what the tax and spending changes will be, and the economic consequences of those policy decisions will be the primary questions of 2012. Until there is some sense of an answer, businesses, households and investors will remain cautious and risk averse. The word that best characterizes the global economic outlook for 2012 is uncertainty. There is so much uncertainty throughout the globe today that it is inhibiting growth in the Americas, Europe and even Asia. Until the uncertainty is diminished, risk avoidance will remain the dominant theme of 2012. We think this will create a challenging year, particularly in the first half of 2012 In 2006, when the global economy was booming, total Government debt as a percent of GDP for the countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, a group of 31 major mostly Western industrial nations) was 74.9%. The countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio were Japan (172%); Greece (117%); and Italy (117%). Five years later as most nations fought through the worst recession in the post-war era the debt/GDP ratio for the OECD climbed to 101% with seven nations how having debt in excess of 100% of GDP. Japan's Government debt today is approximately 212% of that country's GDP, the highest in the developed world. This massive debt increase has forced a few nations into near bankruptcy, caused ratings agencies to lower their ratings on the debt of many countries (an event that was almost unthinkable just a few years ago) and forced many nations, particularly in southern Europe to shift spending and tax policies from expansion to contraction, The amount of deleveraging, that is debt reduction, that must be done and the approach taken to that process will be a critical determinant of the economic performance of the major regions across the globe. GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP: 2011
250%

OECD TOTAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

74.9%
2006

101%
2011

200%

150%

100%

50%
211.7% 165.1% 127.7% 127.3% 112.6% 111.9% 101.6% 100.3% 98.6% 97.6% 90.0% 87.8% 86.9% 74.1% 72.5% 47.1% 42.0% 35.5% 28.2% 26.8%

0%

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SOURCE: ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

MARKETVIEW

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

EUROPE
Put simply, the European region as a whole has some of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world and will face the most difficult economic environment as lenders become more cautious and Governments in many of the region's countries pursue austerity measures. Currently Government debt in the 14 major Euro Zone nations (there are 17 Euro Zone nations, but the OECD only publishes debt data on 14 of these countries) is roughly 96% GDP ranging from a high of 165% in Greece and128% in Italy to 74% in Spain. Recessions are all but certain in several countries and the probability of a Europe-wide recession is increasing.

AMERICAS
While not as severe as in Europe, the U.S., the dominant country in the region faces major challenges with a total Government debt burden equal to roughly 98% of GDP. The debate about how to reduce the debt burden will be the focal point of the 2012 elections leading to continuing uncertainty and constraining growth. But the underlying economy is showing signs of improvement. Elsewhere in the region growth will be healthy, led by Brazil and Mexico.

ASIA/PACIFIC
With the exception of Japan, sovereign debt burdens are far lighter, the economic outlook is far more positive. Debt ratio data is only available on a few of the developed nations in the region, but ranges from 212% in Japan to 36% in Korea and 27% in Australia. However, this region will be affected by the slowdowns in demand from Europe and the Americas, their major markets. Concerns about slowdowns in China's manufacturing and construction sectors are increasing.

Deleverage
The amount of deleveraging that must be done and the approach taken to that process will be a critical determinant of the economic performance of the major regions across the globe

A LOOK BACK
How did we get to this point? In 2007 private debt markets began to tighten as investors reassessed the value of the debt instruments being used to finance growth. This eventually led to a credit crunch which nearly brought down the global economy and finally to Governments stepping in and providing debt and boosting demand through deficit spending. In essence, debt moved from the private sector to the public sector. In 2011, investors went through a major re-evaluation of the ability of Western sovereign nations to repay their debts. After assuming for decades that these nations were incapable of defaulting, the troubles in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy brought into focus the huge burden these debts were placing on these and other nations. As deficits rose, investors pulled back, Governments were forced to turn to other nations and international institutions for financing. The price of this support was requirements that deficits be reduced. As these policies were pursued, protests intensified and Governments collapsed. What had been unthinkable became a real risk that investors were suddenly forced to assess. The result was a pull back from European sovereign debt and a revaluation of the risk associated with institutions which have large holdings of this debt. Despite numerous summit meetings and announcement of several "solutions" we enter 2012 with continuing uncertainty about the future of almost all of the Euro Zone economies and how their debt will be financed. It is with this as a backdrop that we look at the trends for 2012.

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SIX KEY TRENDS FOR 2012
Here are the six key trends we see for the global economy and global real estate markets for 2012.

1. LINKED ECONOMIES BUT WITH REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
Over the long term, as the global financial system continues to become more integrated and trade flows expand, the macro linkages between economies will increase. But, as noted above, the three main global regions, Europe, the Americas and the Asia/ Pacific region have very different public debt profiles and as a result very different prospects in 2012.

EUROPE
The European region will be the worst performing in the global economy burdened by high sovereign debt levels in several the southern tier nations and the impact that will have on the financial system. Here, outright recessions are anticipated for Greece Spain, Ireland and Portugal, with Italy likely to be flat at best. The UK may already be in recession, but it is likely to be mild and London, the dominant city will likely escape recession, but just barely. Even the nations with healthier budgets will be weak as demand from the south is weak and their banking systems are strained by southern tier debt. Lending will be constrained and the entire region will be flat in 2012. GDP growth for the region will range from -2.5% to +1.0% at best. Overall most nations will eek by without recession, but there will be very little expansion in 2012.

AMERICAS
The U.S. will experience modest growth during 2012 as uncertainty about debt reduction and the elections keeps businesses and investors cautious. However, with record corporate profits and rising pent up demand, the U.S. appears poised for growth to accelerate as the uncertainty diminishes, most likely in the second half of the year. Overall GDP growth is likely to be somewhat higher than in 2011, but far from strong. The other major countries in the region: Canada, Brazil and Mexico are also expected to continue to expand at generally stronger rates in 2012 than in 2011, but growth will still be modest with demand from the U.S. remaining slow. GDP Growth in this region will be in the 2.5% to 5.0% range with the U.S. and Canada at the lower end of the range and Mexico and Brazil at the upper end.

Varying prospects in 2012
The global regions have very different public debt profiles and as a result very different prospects in 2012

ASIA/PACIFIC
The economies of the Asia/Pacific region can be grouped into three main types: those that rely on exports of manufactured goods, largely to the U.S. and Europe, for growth; those that have sufficient internally generated demand to grow in an environment of weak external demand; and resource exporters. The nations that rely on manufactured goods exports, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and China are likely to experience slower growth in the first half of 2012 as demand from the U.S. and especially European markets remains weak. As activity picks up in the West during the second half of the year, these nations will see growth accelerate as well. The nations that have internal demand including India, and Indonesia are all expected to continue to grow in 2012 but at a slower pace than 2011. The nations those that are largely resource exporters, including Australia and Malaysia will continue to expand at a healthy pace given the anticipated growth in their major market-China. GDP Growth in this region will be in the 5.0% to 10.0% range with the slower growth in the export dependent countries and healthier performance in those with stronger internal demand.
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MARKETVIEW

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

2. TIMING: FIRST HALF SECOND HALF
Differences: The performance of the global economy the year 2012 is expected to be a tale of two halves. The first half will be spent coping with the fallout from the sovereign debt crisis and the global economy will grow at a subdued pace during that period, but there is a strong possibility that the second half could be a much stronger six months for the global economy and, therefore for real estate markets. There remains a well of pent up demand in most nations as the need to replace goods that are wearing out has increased. For example, the average age of a car in the U.S. is currently 10.8 years, an all-time high. As uncertainty diminishes, we expect to see this demand boost activity.

Strong possibility
that the second half of 2012 could be a much stronger six months for the global economy

EUROPE
A second half rebound would be predicated on firm resolution of the debt crisis early in 2012. This would give investors and business some confidence that the financial environment will stabilize and therefore increase investment and stimulate growth. While it is unlikely that there will be a solid rebound in the second half, it is probable that the worst of the economic weakness will be in the first half.

AMERICAS
Monetary and fiscal policies being put in place now in Brazil and Mexico will stimulate stronger demand in the second half of the year. In the U.S., labor markets are improving and if the budget debate is resolved or at least some framework is put into place in the first half, confidence is likely to increase and there could be a surge in activity as demand accelerates.

ASIA/PACIFIC
The combination of policy initiatives and the prospect of stronger demand in the West during second half is likely to lead to stronger growth during the final six months of the year. Several countries including Australia and India are moving to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates which should boost activity in the second half. Add to this healthier export markets and there is strong potential for healthier growth in the final six months of 2012.

3. RISKS
To be sure, there are risks associated with the environment we foresee and risks to the forecast. The primary risk is that financial stresses will not be resolved. For the global economy to improve there needs to be movement toward resolution of debt issues in Europe and the U.S., or, at the very least, rising confidence that a solution will be achieved. Any negative surprises will likely put us right back into the morass of uncertainty that has gripped the global economy for the past six to nine months. And, at the extreme, a complete breakdown, with the potential for a breaking apart of the Euro Zone would create an unstable situation in Europe that would halt economic progress throughout the world. Given the progress that has been made, we do view this as an unlikely scenario, but it cannot be completely dismissed. The decisions that need to be made on tax and spending policy are subject to the political process, which can go awry. We believe the consequences of a collapse of the Euro Zone are dire enough that no Government would entertain that possibility. But faced with difficult economic and political choices, we cannot rule it out completely.

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Even if we are correct and the Euro Zone remains intact, there are other risks. In the U.S., the deficit debate will be the focal point in the upcoming Presidential election. Even before the election there are milestones that must be met including decisions on taxes and spending in the first quarter of 2012. Further partisan confrontation, especially in an election year, could delay the anticipated improvement in economic performance. Within Asia, there are risks that economic growth will not rebound as quickly as expected. In China, the Government is seeking to dampen speculation and its policies could lead to a harder landing than now anticipated. A weaker China would affect all the nations of the region, particularly those that supply materials to the Chinese manufacturing machine, including Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia. Overall we are comfortable that these risks are unlikely, however, they are not completely out of the realm of possibility.

4. REAL ESTATE OPPORTUNITIES
The evolution of the global economy during 2012 is likely to provide opportunities for real estate investors and occupiers. For investors, deleveraging will lead to opportunity. With European financial firms coming under pressure, there is likely to be a need to dispose of assets to increase capital and real estate is likely to be among the assets that will be sold. We have already seen this process begin with the sale during the third quarter of 2011 of a $9.65 billion portfolio of real estate loans by Anglo Irish Bank to a consortium that included Lone Star Funds along with JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Don't be surprised if we see more asset sales during the first half as banks seek to reduce real estate holdings. In addition, as economic conditions improve during the second half, the opportunities for greater appreciation will be in the secondary and suburban markets that have been shunned as too risky over the past six to nine months. We expect investment in these areas will increase during the second half of the year. For occupiers, a weaker global economy can create an opportunity to lower occupancy cost. With weakness in Europe along with slower growth in the Americas and Asia will all combine to keep vacancy rates from falling significantly and they may rise in some markets. This means that rental rates are not likely to rise significantly in most markets. In C&W's Global Forecast published in November 2011, we forecast rents to increase in 16 of the 20 markets covered in Asia, 19 of the 20 in the Americas and only 11 of the 20 in Europe. In most cases, the projected increases are modest. The lull in economic growth is an opportunity to hold down rental costs.

Opportunities
for real estate investors and occupiers in 2012

5. IMPROVING REAL ESTATE FUNDAMENTALS
The primary characteristic of leasing markets in most of the world is a lack of new construction. With the exception of a few cities, mostly in Asia, construction loans have been limited and new supply has been constrained. As a result, even with regional divergence and early year weakness, we expect global office leasing markets to experience declining vacancy rates and rising rents although the pace will vary by region. As global economic conditions improve during the second half of the year, rising employment will lead to higher demand for space and positive absorption.

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MARKETVIEW

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

In our report Global Office Forecast 2012-2013, C&W provided market forecasts for 60 cities across the globe. In 2012, we project declining vacancy rates in 37 of the 60 cities, rising vacancy in 19 (many, particularly in Asia and Latin America, due to new construction outpacing growth) and vacancy rates to be unchanged in 4 cities. Rental rates for prime class A buildings are forecast to increase almost everywhere. In 47 of the 60 cities rents are forecast to increase in 2012while declines are projected for only 8, with 5 unchanged. The softer global economy during the second half of 2011 and the anticipated continuing moderate growth pace in the first half of 2012 is likely to lead to sluggish performance in industrial markets particularly in Asia and Europe. While there is unlikely to be any deterioration, the room for improvement is limited. Regionally, the greatest opportunity is likely to be in North America, where supply growth has been limited and rising consumer and business demand is likely to lead to higher trade volumes and industrial output. The greatest downside risk is in Europe where fragile economic conditions are likely to lead to a flat environment at best. Asia is likely to be somewhere in between as economic growth, while stronger than in other regions will be slower than in the recent past, leading to overcapacity in some markets.

As global economic conditions improve
during the second half of the year, rising employment will lead to higher demand for space and positive absorption

6. ACTIVE INVESTMENT MARKETS
The economic climate we are projecting will have important implications for global investment markets. Last year saw a 14% increase in global investment sales to $808 billion, led by a 49% increase in sales in the Americas to $235.7 billion. But much of this increase took place in the first half of the year, with sales volume slowing in the second half as global investors turned cautious. For 2012 we anticipate a roughly 7.5% increase in global sales to $867 billion, driven once again by strength in the U.S. There is still pent up demand for real estate that we expect to be acted on during 2012, particularly with more product likely to be brought to market. U.S.-based financial institutions have strengthened their balance sheets over the past two years. During this time prices for real estate assets have improved from their recession lows. As a result, many of these institutions are now in a better position to dispose of assets and we expect this activity to increase in 2012. C&W forecasts investment sales in the Americas to increase 25% over 2011 levels to approximately $295 billion. Sales in Europe are projected to be flat at approximately $198.5 billion while sales in the Asia Pacific region are anticipated to be roughly even with 2011 at $374 billion. In the U.S. we expect to see debt availability increase from banks and other lenders as their balance sheets improve. This is not likely to be the case in Europe where sovereign debt issues will continue to constrain banks' ability to lend. Another source of debt, CMBS markets, are gradually improving. Although they stumbled last year, there is a healthy appetite for this type of debt when it is appropriately priced. In 2011 CMBS volume reached $28 billion, up from $11.5 billion in 2010. For 2012 estimates for new issues range from $35 billion to as much as $50 billion depending on market conditions. Global financial challenges are creating opportunity as well and we do anticipate an increase in opportunistic investment. Faced with a need to raise capital, it is likely that financial institutions will sell assets, including real estate. While Europe has the most banks U.S. lenders and CMBS special servicers are expected to increase their offerings as well. Many have held back in the hope that a rising economy would lead to stronger real

2011 PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN INVESTMENT SALES

14%
GLOBAL $808 B

49%
AMERICAS $235.7 B

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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

estate markets. At first that strategy was effective, but with the slowdown during the second half of 2011, lenders are facing the possibility that they will need to reduce prices to sell their properties. We expect that this process will lead to more properties becoming available particularly during the second half of the year globally.

CONCLUSIONS
The global economic recovery hit a major interruption in 2011 as many Western Governments were faced with unprecedented debt service challenges. Several nations were thrown back into recession and others are struggling with the financial strains caused by the sovereign debt crisis. However, the expansion continues and the underlying drivers of growth are improving. The biggest hurdle that needs to be overcome is uncertainty. As clarity on the resolution of these challenges emerges, pent up demand will be activated and growth will accelerate. The key question is not if the global economy will strengthen, but when. Our view on timing is that the second half of 2012 will be stronger than the first half and 2013 will be even stronger. But there are risks in the outlook. Political decisions need to be made on how to reduce deficits and that process can break down. It is not inconceivable that one or more countries could leave the Euro or that the U.S. becomes so paralyzed by partisan debate that financial markets plunge and confidence collapses. We think this is unlikely, but it cannot be completely discounted. For the real estate sector, a return to stronger growth will create opportunity. Leasing and investment are always healthier in a strong economy when businesses are growing and values are rising. The combination of stronger economic growth in a supply constrained environment will likely lead to improving vacancy and rent fundamentals. This in turn will lead to more properties coming to market and greater investment opportunity. These opportunities are expected to emerge in greater numbers during the second half of 2012 and into 2013. The year 2012 will present challenges, but the underlying health of the global economy is expected to continue to emerge as the year progresses and clarity about the operating environment improves. Glenn Rufrano President & CEO

When?
The key question is not if the global economy will strengthen, but when

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For more information, please contact: Glenn Rufrano President & CEO glenn.rufrano@cushwake.com Ken McCarthy Managing Director, Research ken.mccarthy@cushwake.com

Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) is known the world-over as an industry knowledge leader. Through the delivery of timely, accurate, high-quality research reports on the leading trends, markets around the world and business issues of the day, we aim to assist our clients in making property decisions that meet their objectives and enhance their competitive position. In addition to producing regular reports such as global rankings and local quarterly updates available on a regular basis, C&W also provides customized studies to meet specific information needs of owners, occupiers and investors. C&W is the world's largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm. Founded in 1917, it has 230 offices in 60 countries and more than 14,000 employees. The firm represents a diverse customer base ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. It offers a complete range of services within five primary disciplines: Transaction Services, including tenant and landlord representation in office, industrial and retail real estate; Capital Markets, including property sales, investment management, investment banking, debt and equity financing; Client Solutions, including integrated real estate strategies for large corporations and property owners, Consulting Services, including business and real estate consulting; and Valuation & Advisory, including appraisals, highest and best use analysis, dispute resolution and litigation support, along with specialized expertise in various industry sectors. A recognized leader in global real estate research, the firm publishes a broad array of proprietary reports available on its online Knowledge Center at: www.cushmanwakefield.com This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. It does not purport to be a complete description of the markets or developments contained in this material. The information on which this report is based has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that the information is accurate or complete. Published by Corporate Communications. ę2012 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.

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